I personally feel that Bitcoin$BTC probably won't experience a black swan event anymore.

Currently, the market is waiting for a black swan for BTC.
For example, MicroStrategy collapsing, quantum computers breaking through the BTC network,
or the core value of Bitcoin being discredited to zero.
Bitcoin has repeatedly entered the top ten assets by global market capitalization.
Historically, assets that have long dominated or repeatedly entered the top ten mean they are deeply embedded in the underlying logic of the global financial system, making short-term zeroing out highly unlikely.
Based on an annualized volatility of 40% for Bitcoin,
a reasonable fluctuation over 0.6 years would be approximately 31%.
The current price is 63,000.
A normal retracement in a bear market would be a 31% drop,
bringing the price to around 44,000.
This level is similar to my previous estimate of the 40,000–50,000 range.
So the logic is:
Bitcoin is not crashing,
it's just a standard bear market correction.
A structural shift is most likely to occur by the end of the year.
Until then, the strategy is:
buy the dips or hold USDT and wait.
BTC starting with 5 should be bought in installments.