Structure Selection During Consolidation: Bitcoin Range Trading and HYPE Wave Opportunities | Special Analysis

Hello, I am your old friend, Odaily’s exclusive market analyst Cody. Today is the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, and the Spring Festival holiday is basically coming to an end.

From the market performance, this week’s trend is similar to the analysis in our previous article—slow pace, mainly oscillating, with no obvious directional volatility.

Bitcoin has mainly traded within the 65,500 to 70,000 USD range over the past week, maintaining a sideways consolidation overall. It has neither effectively broken through the upper resistance nor shown signs of further weakening with increased volume downward.

In this context, it is more appropriate this week not to rush to judge the trend direction but to observe the structural changes within the oscillation range.

It is during this phase of “mainstream assets slowing down” that we can extend our focus to some relatively independent assets.

Therefore, in this week’s article, we will introduce a new coin analysis—HYPE. Combining the results of a recent short-term practical operation, we will analyze its current position and potential trading opportunities from daily structure and wave perspective.

Weekly Trading Summary:

• Short-term strategy execution effectiveness verification: Based on strategy discipline, since Bitcoin’s price did not reach the predicted resistance zone, we did not perform short-term trades last week.

• Mid-term strategy execution effectiveness verification: Bitcoin followed the established mid-term strategy last week, continuing to hold a short position built at around 89,000 USD (1x leverage), with a profit of approximately 24.01% as of last week’s close, with a maximum profit of about 32.58%.

• Core short-term view verification: Last week, Bitcoin oscillated between 65,500 and 70,000 USD. The current trend aligns with our previous forecast of a sideways trading range.

• HYPE: Structural analysis and short-term trading opportunities. (See detailed explanation in Figure 1)

Below, we will review the market forecast, strategy execution, and specific trading process in detail.

1. HYPE Structure Analysis and Short-term Trading Review:

HYPE Daily K-line Chart

Figure 1

1. Daily Level Structure Framework (see Figure 1)

Since stabilizing around 20.46 USD on January 21, 2026, HYPE has begun an independent sideways upward trend. Currently, the price has confirmed a breakout of the long-term downtrend line connecting the September 2025 high (~59.48 USD) and the October 2025 high (~50.17 USD), indicating a possible shift from the previous bearish structure.

Its daily structure can be preliminarily divided as follows (based on the market after January 21):

• Wave I (Driving Wave): from January 21 (20.46 USD) to February 3 (38.41 USD), completing an upward wave.

• Wave I Bottom Signal: Analysis via our self-developed quantitative models shows that at the end of Wave I (around January 21):

• Momentum Quant Model: shows divergence signals.

• Sentiment Quant Model: triggers bottom warning signals (white horizontal bar in the chart).

The convergence of these signals reinforces the forecast that Wave I formed an important low point at 20.46 USD on January 21.

• Wave II (Correction Wave): from February 3 (38.41 USD) to now, representing a correction of Wave I.

• Key Confirmation Conditions for Wave III:

• Wave III Start Signal:

a. If subsequent prices do not fall below the February 19 low of 27.73 USD, this point can be confirmed as the end of Wave II and the start of Wave III.

b. If prices fall below 27.73 USD but stay above the January 21 low of 20.46 USD, it indicates the current move is just a continuation of Wave II, and Wave III may not have started yet; next bottom signals need to be observed.

• Wave III End Confirmation Signal:

Wave III’s high must surpass Wave I’s peak of 38.41 USD. Only when the price clearly breaks above the previous high can the upward trend be confirmed; otherwise, it may still be a rebound within a broad oscillation or a downward structure.

2. HYPE Short-term Operation (Long position at 1x leverage)

• Entry Decision: Based on the correction after the first upward trend on the 1-hour chart, and the first retracement after momentum line crossing zero in the momentum quant model, with the price above key support zones.

• Exit Decision: Close position when the price approaches the short-term technical resistance near 30.97 USD.

• Trade Summary: This operation successfully captured a rebound wave on the hourly level, with a profit of about 4.71%.

2. Bitcoin Sideways Trend Continues (02.16–02.22)

3. Short-term Operation Review:

Since Bitcoin did not reach last week’s preset key resistance zone, and our self-developed momentum and spread trading models did not trigger top signals, we strictly followed the established short-term strategy and did not open new positions last week.

2. Mid-term Operation Review:

Mid-term strategy: Continue holding 60% of the short position built around 89,000 USD as planned, with a profit of 24.01% as of last week’s close.

3. Key Levels Last Week:

Resistance zone: 72,000–74,500 USD

Support zone: around 65,000 USD

3. Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin: Multi-model and multi-dimensional comprehensive assessment

Combining market operation, I rely on a self-built trading system to analyze multiple technical indicators of Bitcoin from various models and dimensions.

1. As shown in (Figure 2), from the weekly chart:

Bitcoin Weekly K-line Chart: (Momentum Quant Model + Sentiment Quant Model)

Figure 2

• Momentum Quant Model: indicates that the momentum line is moving downward in sync, with negative energy bars expanding for 4 consecutive weeks, no divergence signals.

The model suggests: Bitcoin’s downward momentum index: high.

• Sentiment Quant Model: blue sentiment line value 27, strength zero; purple sentiment line value 10, strength zero, peak value is 0. This indicates the market’s oversold panic sentiment has not yet appeared.

The model suggests: Bitcoin’s bottom support index: neutral.

• Digital Monitoring Model: no bottom digital signals triggered.

The model suggests: no digital bottom signals; last week’s candle closed with a small bearish candle of about 1.73%. The chart shows Bitcoin has been forming a “lower high, higher low” pattern for three consecutive weeks, overall converging.

These data indicate: Bitcoin’s weekly trend is bearish, with narrowing declines. It is likely a consolidation or correction within a downtrend.

2. As shown in (Figure 3), from the daily chart:

Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart: (Momentum Quant Model + Sentiment Quant Model)

Figure 3

• Momentum Quant Model: last week’s trend was mainly “narrow sideways consolidation.” After the momentum line formed a “golden cross” below zero, it moved upward in sync, with positive energy bars gradually enlarging.

The model suggests: bullish rebound momentum is releasing; monitor volume changes.

• Sentiment Quant Model: after triggering a bottom warning signal (white dot) earlier, the sentiment lines turned upward. Currently, blue sentiment line value 20, strength zero; purple sentiment line value 22, strength zero. The two lines are close together, moving away from oversold territory.

The model suggests: sentiment lines turning upward, confirming the bottom warning signal; but the close proximity indicates mid- and short-term buying activity is weak, and rebound strength is limited.

These data suggest: the daily trend remains bearish, but oversold rebound is ongoing in the short term.

4. Market Forecast for This Week (02.23–03.01)

5. Bitcoin’s Central Rise Structure (based on the low point after Feb 6):

Bitcoin 4-hour Chart

Figure 4

Using the 4-hour chart as the operation cycle:

• Central Rise Determination: The current structure on the 4-hour chart suggests a high probability of forming a “rising central” pattern, with the upper resistance around 72,300 USD and support at about 65,100 USD.

• Core Scenarios and Trading Plans:

• Scenario 1 (Failure to Break): If subsequent rebound fails to break above the upper boundary (~72,300 USD), the consolidation will continue. Trading plan: consider reducing long positions on rallies.

• Scenario 2 (Successful Breakout): If the rebound effectively breaks above the central upper boundary, the breakout is confirmed. Trading plan: the upward trend may continue; hold longs temporarily, wait for clear exit signals.

• Scenario 3: If the price drops below the lower boundary (~65,100 USD), it will test the support at the February 6 low again.

2. Core View for This Week: Focus on the battle between bulls and bears near the upper and lower boundaries of the central range. The strategy should firmly follow the principle of “reducing positions on rallies (longs) and controlling risk.”

3. Key Resistance Levels:

• First resistance zone: 72,300–74,500 USD (near April 2025 low)

• Second resistance zone: 79,500–80,600 USD (near B wave start point)

4. Key Support Levels:

• First support: around 65,000 USD (previous low point)

• Second support: 60,000–62,500 USD (near February 6 low)

• Third support: around 57,400 USD (near 210-week moving average)

5. Trading Strategies for This Week (excluding unexpected news impacts): (02.23–03.01)

6. Mid-term strategy: Maintain 60% short positions. If a strong rebound breaks above 74,500 USD, reduce to 40%.

7. Short-term strategy: Use 30% of the position, set stop-loss points based on support and resistance levels, and look for “spread” trading opportunities (using 30-minute/60-minute cycles).

8. Since the medium-term market trend is bearish, short-term operations should follow the principle of “trend-following, shorting on rallies.” To adapt dynamically to market evolution and based on signals from our self-developed trading models, we propose two plans:

• Plan A: If the price rebounds to near the upper boundary (~72,300 USD):

• Entry: When the rebound hits resistance and model signals indicate top, establish a 15% short position.

• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss at above 75,500 USD.

• Exit: When the price drops near key support and model signals confirm, gradually close positions to realize profits.

• Plan B: If the price rebounds near 74,500 USD:

• Add Position: When resistance is hit and model signals indicate top, increase short position by 15%.

• Risk Control: Initial stop-loss at above 75,500 USD.

• Exit: When the price declines to support levels and signals confirm, gradually close to lock in profits.

6. Special Reminders:

7. When opening a position: immediately set an initial stop-loss.

8. When profit reaches 1%: move stop-loss to the entry cost (break-even point) to protect principal.

9. When profit reaches 2%: move stop-loss to 1% profit level.

10. Continuous tracking: for every additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss up by 1%, dynamically protecting and locking in gains.

The financial markets are ever-changing; all analysis and trading strategies need to be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, models, and strategies discussed are based on personal technical analysis only, for personal trading logs and not investment advice or operational basis. Markets carry risks; please trade cautiously and do not base decisions solely on this content.