Everbright Strategy: Market Is Expected to Rebound and Rise After the Holiday, Which Industries Are More Resilient?

Weekly Strategy Outlook

The market is expected to fluctuate upward after the holiday. Historically, influenced by improved micro liquidity and increased investor risk appetite, the A-share market tends to perform well during the 20 trading days following the Spring Festival. From 2012 to 2025, the probability that the Wind All A Index rises in the 20 trading days after the holiday has reached 75%. Additionally, most broad-based indices from 2010 to 2024 show significantly higher average gains in the 20 days post-Spring Festival compared to the 20 days pre-Festival. This year, the A-share market may also perform well after the holiday, supported not only by calendar effects but also by rising overseas markets and domestic industry catalysts, which could positively influence the trend.

Historically, which industries show greater resilience after the holiday? Data from 2012 to 2025 indicate that most industries have a high probability of rising in the 20 days after the holiday. Among them, industries with higher median gains tend to be growth and cyclically oriented sectors, such as computers, environmental protection, communications, textiles and apparel, steel, and machinery equipment. This may be mainly related to increased risk appetite and policy expectations ahead of the Two Sessions.

Which industries are worth investor attention this year? Besides industries benefiting from calendar effects, some sectors experienced catalysts during the Spring Festival, and they may also perform well afterward, making them worth noting. These include TMT sectors benefiting from industry events, humanoid robot chains driven by Spring Festival performances, tourism sectors benefiting from travel, and certain resource commodities.

Key Industries This Week

【Electronics & Communications】 We believe AI remains the core theme, with demand remaining strong. 1. Storage industry continues to be highly prosperous. TrendForce forecasts that driven by rising ASPs (2026 DRAM ASP expected to increase by 36% annually), DRAM revenue in 2026 could surge by 56%. 2. ByteDance’s AI demand is massive, and Huawei’s Ascend is accelerating its evolution. Key stocks to watch include Zhongji Xuchuang, Shennan Circuit, and Zhaoyi Innovation.

【Computers】 During the Spring Festival, continuous AI industry catalysts helped foster a thriving domestic AI ecosystem. Companies like Alibaba Qianwen, Tencent Yuanbao, ByteDance Doubao, and Baidu Wenxin increased investments to compete for AI traffic during the holiday; major model providers like MiniMax-M2.5 and Zhipu GLM-5 released new flagship models; the GLM Coding Plan price adjustment notice was issued, with overall package prices rising by at least 30%, reflecting strong demand for AI programming and the competitiveness of domestic models. In the medium to long term, we recommend focusing on three high-confidence themes: 1) Industry positioning: deep integration with business processes, with industry leaders possessing substantial data and industry know-how; 2) Accelerated overseas expansion: leading companies with high overseas revenue ratios; 3) Scenario dominance: promising segments like AI programming, AI agents, AI marketing, and multimodal applications with clear ROI and significant cost reduction and efficiency gains. Stocks to watch include iFlytek, Kingsoft Office, and Hikvision.

【High-End Manufacturing】 Multiple robot-related programs during the Spring Festival Gala demonstrated significant improvements in humanoid robot capabilities, including high-precision motion control, deep development of embodied large models, and bionic interaction. Mass production of humanoid robots is expected to accelerate in 2026, supported by a series of targeted and small-batch orders within the industry chain, presenting investment opportunities in leading, deterministic stocks. AI applications continue to catalyze during the holiday, with demand for AI computing power expected to keep rising. Liquid cooling penetration is rapidly increasing, and as chip power consumption rises, microchannel cold plates further enhance value; AI servers are advancing to higher levels with ongoing evolution in advanced packaging. Stocks to watch include Ampere Dragon, HanZhong Precision Machinery, and Kega Precision.

【Social Services】 Tourism: clear trend of rising volume and prices. “Festive travel” boosts popularity of niche domestic destinations; island lockdowns increase tourism in Hainan. During the Spring Festival holiday, daily inbound and outbound travelers are expected to grow by 14% year-over-year, with source countries and destinations becoming more diversified. Catering: Spring Festival dining consumption continues to heat up. The first four days saw an 8.6% YoY increase in daily sales at key retail and catering enterprises nationwide. The “reverse reunion” trend is emerging, boosting restaurant performance in top-tier cities. Education: Strong demand for K12, with improved competition; long-term benefits from AI + education, with short-term focus on spring enrollment progress. Stocks to watch include Tongcheng Travel, Haidilao, and Guming.

Risk Analysis

1. Significant fluctuations in overseas markets;
2. Notable decline in market sentiment;
3. Economic growth falling short of expectations.

(Source: Everbright Securities)