Assessing Target (TGT) Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound And Mixed Return Pattern

Simply Wall St

Mon, February 23, 2026 at 1:25 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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TGT

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Target stock performance snapshot

Target (TGT) is back on many investors’ radar as they reassess the retailer’s recent share performance and fundamentals. The stock closed at $116.69 and showed mixed return patterns across different holding periods.

See our latest analysis for Target.

Recent trading has leaned positive, with a 90 day share price return of 38.03% and a 30 day share price return of 7.95%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 1.80% decline shows that longer term holders have not yet seen the same lift. This may hint at shifting expectations around Target’s risk and recovery profile.

If Target’s rebound has you thinking about what else could be on your watchlist, this is a good moment to broaden your search with our 22 top founder-led companies.

With TGT trading at $116.69, a 17.07% intrinsic discount estimate suggests some room between price and implied value. However, a price above the US$103.81 analyst target raises the question: is there still a buying opportunity, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.9% Overvalued

Compared with Target’s last close at $116.69, the most widely followed narrative points to a fair value of $96.52, using a discount rate of 7.71% to bring future cash flows back to today.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $103.688 for Target based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $135.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $82.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what sits underneath that split view? The narrative leans on modest revenue expansion, thinner margins, and a future earnings multiple that still assumes solid profitability. The full set of assumptions might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $96.52 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, if investments in technology and owned brands lift efficiency and margins faster than expected, or if digital and media segments keep gaining traction, this cautious narrative could be challenged.

Find out about the key risks to this Target narrative.

Another take from earnings multiples

The narrative above leans on a fair value of $96.52 that implies Target is 20.9% overvalued. Yet on a simple P/E, the picture looks different. At roughly 14x earnings, Target trades well below the US Consumer Retailing average of 21.9x, a peer average of 31.1x, and a fair ratio of 20.3x. If the market ever shifts closer to that fair ratio, what could that gap mean for your risk and return expectations?

Story Continues  

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:TGT P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and caution around Target resonates with you, take a moment to review the numbers yourself and decide how they stack up against your expectations, then round out your view with 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

Ready for more investment ideas?

If Target is only one piece of your portfolio puzzle, do not stop here. Use this momentum to uncover fresh ideas that match your goals and risk comfort.

Explore potential long term value by scanning companies that combine quality fundamentals with attractive pricing through our 54 high quality undervalued stocks.

Review businesses with reliable payouts that may strengthen your income stream in our hand picked 15 dividend fortresses.

Consider companies that score well on resilience and stability to help you sleep easier at night using the 87 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include TGT.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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