Survival Rules in the Cryptocurrency Market: Understand Cash Flow, Catch the Second Wave

In the crypto market, the losers are usually the same: entering trades because of a story, exiting in panic. Long-term survivors, on the other hand, do the opposite: they observe the flow of funds, read the crowd’s behavior, and only act when the odds are in their favor. After many Bitcoin cycles of ups and downs, I’ve derived a core principle: Sustainable price growth only occurs when there is significant capital backing it and the community is passionate enough to maintain liquidity. The first wave may be FOMO. The second wave is where big money truly makes profits.

1. Large Capital – The Root of All Trends Without “whales” or institutional players, there are no strong trends. In crypto, whales and organizations always lead the market by a step. Silent Accumulation Signs A healthy growth phase usually begins with: Prolonged sideways price movementIncreasing trading volumeGradually tested support levels that don’t breakThrough large wallets quietly accumulating on-chain data Previously, when Bitcoin hovered around $80,000, the price hardly moved significantly, but large wallet holdings kept increasing. This was no coincidence – it was a “supply absorption” process. As on-exchange supply diminishes, just a small catalyst can trigger a breakout. Three Key Steps of the Big Players Most “top-selling” phases follow a familiar pattern: Silent accumulation – establishing a solid price baseActivating media – KOLs, news, community hypeDriving the price up – liquidating leverage – flipping to sell Retail investors often only see steps 2 and 3. Experienced traders observe from step 1.
2. Community Sentiment – The Fuel for Liquidity In crypto, good technology isn’t enough. You need discussion, interaction, and flow of funds. How to Differentiate Real and Fake Communities A healthy community will have: Diverse discussion topics (technical updates, roadmaps, governance)Natural interactions, not focused on a single account groupActive engagement across Telegram, Discord, X (Twitter) Conversely, “pump” communities often: Spam slogans80% of content created by 10% of accountsSudden explosive growth in members over a short period Projects with genuine DAOs, where on-chain voting involves real participation, are where sustainable funds flow.
3. Trading Method: Confirm Both Capital Flow + Sentiment I don’t enter trades based on a single signal. I wait for two conditions to occur simultaneously: ✅ Strong large capital inflow Net inflow on exchanges or on-chainSignificant buy/sell ratioOpen interest rising but funding not too high ✅ Natural community growth Steady increase in discussion volumeMany long-term accounts participatingContent with depth rather than just hype When these two factors align, the probability of success increases significantly.
4. Risk Management – Survive to Profit No strategy is perfect without discipline. My core principles: Never let a coin exceed 20% of total capitalIf large capital withdraws continuously → reduce position by 50%When community weakens rapidly → activate hedgingNo FOMO after a 20–30% candle increase In crypto, preserving capital is more important than making money.
5. Where Is the Market Now? Currently, institutional capital shows caution, ETF volatility persists, and deleveraging is ongoing. This means: The market may need more time to accumulateBut it’s also a phase preparing for a new cycle History shows: Markets are born in skepticism, grow in hesitation, explode in optimism, and crash in euphoria. We are in the middle of doubt and exploration – where opportunities begin to form but risks remain.
6. Survival Mindset in Crypto To survive long-term: Reduce trading frequencyIncrease accuracyEliminate emotionsAlways observe capital flow before listening to stories Crypto is full of opportunities. What’s lacking is patience and market reading skills. The first wave creates noise. The second wave creates assets. Those who understand this will no longer chase the crowd – they will start ahead of it.