Bitcoin and Ethereum Bottom Price Indicators — VIX Index and U.S. Stocks Reveal Whether It's a Rebound or a Reversal

When comparing the VIX indicator with the movement of U.S. stocks, the current market is in a complex phase that does not simply indicate a bottom. The combination of the LTH-NUPL, a long-term holder profit and loss indicator, and the VIX is the analysis method I most trust for determining Bitcoin’s bottom. The latest data shows Bitcoin trading near $67,350, and market focus is on where the price will go after the sharp decline in mid-February.

Where the LTH-NUPL indicator shows Bitcoin currently stands

Looking at the LTH-NUPL data, Bitcoin remains in the yellow zone, not reaching the orange or red crisis levels. Historically, this yellow zone is the most typical scenario, indicating a transitional phase from a bullish to a bearish market. Generally, red signifies a highly reliable bottom opportunity, but Bitcoin is not in such an extreme state at present.

The yellow zone suggests that core long-term holders have not yet incurred systematic losses; rather, profits are beginning to be compressed. In other words, most long-term holders are not in a panic state and have not succumbed to emotional selling. Meanwhile, looking at open position data, short-term traders continue to rapidly increase leverage, leading to market conditions where, despite large price swings, there are repeated liquidations of leveraged positions. This repetitive pattern causes significant selling pressure during each rebound, and each decline triggers chain reactions of leverage liquidations, creating a vicious cycle.

The bearish signals already shown by Ethereum

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum has emitted more serious bearish signals during this decline. Ethereum’s LTH-NUPL indicator has entered the orange zone, and in early February, a red bottom signal appeared around $1,800. This indicator is also highly accurate for bottom detection. The last time this red signal appeared was in April 2025, when clear signals at $1,400–$1,550 preceded a rapid surge past $4,800 to a new all-time high. Currently, Ethereum is trading near $1,940, with its all-time high reaching $4,950.

Based on these past successes, there is a high likelihood that Ethereum will again show a red bottom signal, and at that point, it may be worth prioritizing Ethereum purchases over Bitcoin.

Future scenarios driven by U.S. stock and VIX trends

If the macroeconomic environment continues to worsen, Bitcoin and Ethereum could still be pushed down into the red zone. The mid-February decline is not the end but rather a test of the bottom. This phase could be an advantageous entry point for building new positions, but it’s premature to conclude that the bottom has been definitively reached.

Looking at the VIX data, it has not yet entered a confirmed bottom level. If a true bear market is to occur, support levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to be tested multiple times.

On the other hand, if U.S. stocks remain strong and additional uncertainties related to the Trump administration are avoided, a strong rebound could occur. Considering the correlation between U.S. stocks and VIX, the movement of the U.S. AI-related sectors increasingly influences the price action of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Essentially, cryptocurrencies are currently functioning as “a part of the expanded volatility in U.S. stocks,” with market sentiment directly reflecting the strength or weakness of U.S. equities.

Investment decisions in an uncertain market environment

Ultimately, the greatest contradiction in this market has not yet fully manifested. The interplay of U.S. economic and monetary policies, inflation issues, and the uncertainties introduced by the Trump administration remain complex and unresolved. Factors such as whether tariffs are deemed illegal or geopolitical conflicts intensify directly impact Bitcoin’s price movements.

Based on current analysis, the 2026 market appears to be in a rebound phase, but a full reversal has not yet materialized. Conditions necessary for a complete market turnaround are not yet in place. The strength of U.S. stocks is concentrated in AI sectors, and it is reasonable to expect that the crypto market will remain subordinate for the foreseeable future. While there is a strong desire for Bitcoin to bottom out at this stage, persistent uncertainties continue to complicate market participants’ decision-making.