How will the market perform in the first week after the Spring Festival? Brokerage firms: The "calendar effect" of the A-share market during the Spring Festival is obvious, and post-holiday expectations are relatively optimistic.

The Spring Festival holiday in 2026 is coming to an end, and the A-shares will迎来 the first trading day of the Year of the Horse. Investors have high expectations for the Year of the Horse, hoping the market will gallop like a steed, leading to a bull market with a “one horse out in front” trend.

Looking back at the just-concluded Year of the Snake, the A-share market wrapped up successfully, with major indices all finishing in the green, led by the ChiNext Index with a 58.73% increase. Additionally, trading activity in the A-share market was lively, with average daily turnover soaring to 1.89 trillion yuan, nearly one-third of trading days saw turnover exceeding 2 trillion yuan.

Overall, securities firms are generally optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival, though there are differences in specific allocation strategies. Most believe the market has a higher probability of rising after the holiday, especially in the first week; policy dividends are worth noting, as the “Enjoy Shopping for the New Spring” consumption stimulus policy directly boosts expectations for the consumer sector.

The A-share market exhibits a significant Spring Festival “calendar effect.” China Galaxy Securities analyzed historical patterns from 2016 to 2025 and found that, statistically, the probability of the All A Index rising one trading day after the Spring Festival is 70%, and the probability of rising five trading days after is 80%.

Data source: China Galaxy Securities

CITIC Securities also stated that over the past ten years, the main A-share indices have a higher probability of rising after the holiday. The performance of major indices in the 3-day, 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day periods before the holiday is weaker than during the corresponding periods after the holiday. From a purely data perspective, the period before the holiday generally tends to be a relatively “dormant” phase compared to the post-holiday period.

Data source: CITIC Securities Client Development Center, data as of December 31, 2025

Dongwu Securities reviewed the market performance around the Spring Festival over the past 20 years and pointed out that the week before the holiday is the best window for index positioning, with around five days before the holiday often marking a rebound turning point. In terms of sectors, industries with better historical performance before the holiday include non-ferrous metals, automobiles, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and electrical equipment. Post-holiday performance is relatively strong in environmental protection, electronics, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery.

China Galaxy Securities noted that the market performance before the 2026 Year of the Horse Spring Festival shares commonalities with past years but also has its own characteristics. Recent market trends align with the pattern of style switching before the holiday. In 2026, the market before the Spring Festival shows typical “pre-holiday risk aversion” features. Volume has shrunk, reflecting cautious investor sentiment. Funds are withdrawing from high-valuation tech and cyclical sectors, switching to value and consumption themes.

In terms of sector rotation, defensive sectors like banks and food and beverages are performing countertrend, while previously strong sectors such as computing hardware and non-ferrous metals have seen significant pullbacks. Regarding its uniqueness, the early spring turbulence has triggered growth styles to realize gains in January. After the holiday, with policy windows opening and risk appetite rebounding, market focus may shift back to growth sectors with industrial catalysts and earnings visibility, such as AI applications, high-end manufacturing, and new energy.

Guotai Haitong Securities stated that, overall, the period from after the Spring Festival to the end of March is a good window for bullish trading. This is because liquidity after the holiday returns to easing, combined with the upcoming “Two Sessions” policy window, which improves market risk appetite and promotes active trading.

Furthermore, from a structural perspective, the domestic demand sector has a higher probability of outperforming the broader A-share market. Emerging technologies remain the main profit drivers, with a focus on AI and overseas expansion in high-growth tracks.

(Article source: Hongxing Capital Bureau)