Bitcoin Cycles: Why I Didn't Rely Solely on Price to Predict the Bottom in 2026

Market fund forecasts in the cryptocurrency space are often made through isolated price analysis. However, an in-depth study of 3,100 days of Bitcoin data across three complete market cycles reveals a pattern that most analysts overlook: time.

I did not base this analysis on a single model but on five independent timing methodologies, each with different assumptions and mathematical approaches. Still, all pointed to the same conclusion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues its current trajectory—data from February 2026 indicate the asset is trading around $67.93K, significantly above the levels projected for the next bottom.

Market Cycle Timing: A Remarkably Consistent Pattern

Bitcoin’s bear cycles show an approximate duration of 377 days, with minimal variations:

• 2017 to 2018: From peak to bottom, 363 days elapsed
• 2021 to 2022: From peak to bottom, 376 days elapsed
• 2025 to present: So far, 127 days have passed out of the expected 377

This means that, according to timing calculations, there is still more time before the typical exhaustion of a market cycle is reached. Most participants make the same mistake: they only look at the price chart and ignore the clock.

Why Time and Exhaustion Converge Differently Than Fear

A critical concept often misunderstood is that markets hit their bottoms when collective psychology reaches peaks of fear. However, historical data shows a different pattern: bottoms occur when two conditions align simultaneously—the time needed for market cycle exhaustion and the actual depletion of speculative capital.

If a cycle top occurs earlier, the bottom will tend to come sooner as well. But it will still respect this timing cadence. The key difference is that I did not base the model solely on psychological fear levels but on the intersection of elapsed time and market fatigue.

Projected Scenario: October 2026

Applying this timing logic to previous cycles, the projection points to October 2026 as the period with the highest probability for the current cycle bottom. The expected price range is between $37,000 and $43,000.

This range does not represent certainty but the convergence of multiple independent methodologies. The analysis suggests that the current price of $67.93K, while a significant appreciation, still does not reflect the final level of the ongoing market cycle.

Perspective and Considerations

The cycle’s pain is not over. The most advantageous buying window is probably not now but when timing and exhaustion align. The probability points to October 2026, but deviations and variations from this trend are possible—markets are complex systems subject to unforeseen events.

Whether you agree with this methodology or not, the information is documented here.