Bitcoin shutdown price in volatile markets

Recently, Bitcoin prices have experienced a correction, and assets such as gold and silver have also shown significant fluctuations. The macroeconomic environment’s uncertainty has clearly increased, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Against this backdrop, market sentiment has become more cautious, and discussions around crypto assets are gradually shifting from growth expectations to survival capabilities. Among these, the operational status of miners has become a focal point, with the concept of “shutdown price” being frequently mentioned.

This concern is not unfounded. Under the dual influence of falling prices and tightening macro liquidity, the profitability of the mining industry indeed faces temporary pressure. The market attempts to use the “shutdown price” indicator to determine whether miners will be forced to exit en masse, thereby affecting network security and asset outlooks. This focus reflects market participation, but relying solely on this concept as the core basis for industry risk assessment often overlooks key differences and self-regulating features within Bitcoin mining mechanisms. In fact, in practical operation, the “shutdown price” is not a simple, uniform price alert level.

Misconceptions About the Shutdown Price

From an industry perspective, there is no single “shutdown price” applicable to all miners. The so-called “shutdown price” is more of a theoretical result derived from models based on specific assumptions, typically assuming uniform electricity prices, equipment efficiency, and operating costs. In reality, the cost structure of mining is highly differentiated. Different miner models vary significantly in energy efficiency; new high-efficiency miners and older equipment have incomparable unit cost per hash. For example, among current mainstream models, the Antminer S23 Hyd (about 580 TH/s, 5510W) has an efficiency of approximately 9.5 J/T, the Antminer S21 (about 480 TH/s, 5280W) about 11 J/T, and the Canaan Avalon A16XP-300T about 12.8 J/T. Improving energy efficiency by 1–2 J/T under the same electricity price conditions can significantly alter the breakeven point.

Source: Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI), Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF), accessed February 12, 2026

Different mining farms also have significant differences in energy sources and contract electricity prices. Ranging from hydropower and wind power to thermal power, the energy mix directly determines marginal costs. Large-scale farms in North America with abundant hydropower resources can have long-term contract electricity prices as low as $0.03–0.05/kWh, while in regions with higher energy costs, commercial electricity prices can reach $0.08–0.12/kWh. The operational pressure on the same model of miner varies greatly under different electricity prices. Additionally, differences in operational efficiency, management costs, capital structure, and risk management strategies among miners also influence their ability to withstand price fluctuations.

Therefore, due to the large differences in miner models, electricity price structures, and operational efficiencies, there is no unified “shutdown price” in the industry. Actual conditions vary depending on farm conditions and equipment configurations. Treating a model based on average assumptions as a “life or death” line for the industry can easily exaggerate market sentiment.

When Bitcoin prices gradually approach certain cost ranges amid volatility, the real industry changes are often closer to a structural adjustment rather than a systemic risk outbreak. During periods of price pressure and relatively high mining difficulty, overall profit margins narrow. Adjustments tend to occur first among marginal hash power with higher costs and lower efficiency. Smaller miners, those with higher energy costs, or aging equipment, may choose to gradually shut down, reduce hash rate, or adjust asset structures to ease operational pressures.

This process often manifests in macro data as a phased decline in total network hash rate. A decrease in hash rate does not mean network security is compromised but reflects natural industry clearing and renewal. In fact, such cyclical changes tend to accelerate the concentration of hash power among entities with scale operations and cost advantages, thereby improving overall industry efficiency.

Market Filtering and Self-Adaptation

From a deeper perspective, the “shutdown price” is not an absolute bottom in terms of price but more of a dynamic reference zone. During market fluctuations, high-cost, low-efficiency miners may choose to temporarily shut down or adjust their operations. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin network itself has a mature self-adaptive mechanism. When some hash power exits, the network difficulty adjusts downward, and the remaining efficient hash power gains more rewards, gradually leading the network to a new equilibrium. This self-regulation capability ensures that Bitcoin mining can continue through multiple cycles, providing high-efficiency miners with increased unit hash output and improved operational environments.

Extending the timeline makes this pattern clearer. In past cycles, the industry has experienced phases where prices fell below certain production cost ranges. In 2019, 2022, and other periods, Bitcoin prices were below the cost of most miners at the time, but subsequent adjustments in hash rate, difficulty, and market recovery gradually brought the industry back toward new equilibrium ranges. Each cyclical adjustment pushes the industry toward lower energy costs, higher hash efficiency, and greater specialization and scale, clearing outdated capacity and marking industry maturation.

How to Progress Amid Fluctuations

At the enterprise level, the key to coping with industry volatility is not short-term price speculation but long-term preparedness and operational resilience. Take BitFuFu as an example: the company has long focused on infrastructure construction and operational efficiency, continuously deploying new high-efficiency miners, and improving overall hash rate quality through scaled operations and meticulous energy cost management. The company also engages in diversified energy partnerships to build a competitive electricity cost structure. Thanks to advantages in equipment efficiency, energy mix, and operational systems, its hash rate remains stable, enabling it to maintain relatively steady output and healthy asset structures during industry adjustments.

Short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, but the Bitcoin network and mining industry demonstrate strong self-adaptive and evolutionary capabilities through cycles. Behind the discussion of “shutdown prices,” what truly matters is how the industry achieves efficiency leaps amid volatility and how companies that focus on long-term construction and continuously build cost and efficiency moats can thrive.

Winter tests vitality; cycles forge true value. What the industry is experiencing is not retreat but deeper consolidation and upgrading. We remain here, focused and steady, moving forward together with the network.