Economist Timothy Peterson: Bitcoin Still Has Structural Upside Potential, 88% Chance of Rise by Year-End

CycleProphet · 2026-02-22T03:36:19+00:00

Cryptoeconomist Timothy Peterson's analysis suggests that Bitcoin still has upside potential in the current bear market, with multiple months in the past 24 months recording positive returns, indicating an 88% probability that the next 10 months will be above the current level. Despite Bitcoin's price dropping nearly 25%, market sentiment has become neutral, possibly approaching a turning point.

CycleProphet

2026-02-22 03:36:19

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, February 22 — According to Cointelegraph, crypto economist Timothy Peterson’s latest analysis indicates that Bitcoin still has structural upside potential during the current bear market correction: over the past 24 months, 50% of the months have recorded positive returns (based on CoinGlass data, positive months in 2025 include January, April, May, June, July, September), suggesting a higher probability of a positive turning point within any 24-month cycle.

Based on this, Peterson estimates that the probability of Bitcoin being above its current level in the next 10 months (until December 2026) is 88%. He emphasizes that this statistical model shows the market may be approaching a turning point rather than continuing to decline. Currently, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $68,173, down nearly 25% from the early-year high, erasing most of the gains made after the 2024-2025 U.S. elections; the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to “Extreme Fear” at 9 points, and social media Bitcoin sentiment has cooled (Santiment data), with overall sentiment neutral.

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