Market Movements These Past Few Days: Why Your Price Target Might Not Come Through

These past few days have sparked a familiar debate in trading circles. Many traders are looking at recent BTC movements and becoming increasingly convinced that a pullback into the 3x range is inevitable. The reasoning sounds logical at face value—but here’s the thing: this exact scenario has played out before, and the outcome was rarely what the majority expected.

The Historical Trap of Waiting for Round Numbers

Let me walk through what happened in the previous market cycle. When BTC was in a downtrend, the overwhelming consensus was clear: “It has to reach 100k—that’s my exit level.” Everyone seemed absolutely convinced that recovery would take prices back to that psychological milestone before any final collapse.

What actually occurred? BTC recovered only to approximately 97k before the market structure completely reversed. The traders who survived this period weren’t the ones clinging to their predetermined price target. Instead, they were the ones closely monitoring actual price action in real time, willing to adapt when the market didn’t cooperate with their expectations. They didn’t stubbornly wait for the “perfect” number—they exited when conditions changed, preserving their capital in the process.

The lesson here applies directly to today’s situation. Markets don’t care about our mental price anchors or the nice round numbers we’ve marked on our charts.

Why 5x Could Be the Real Support Level

I’m not saying BTC won’t reach the 3x range. That’s certainly possible. However, from my observation of current market structure, if we do experience a significant decline, the area around the 5x level would likely provide substantial technical support and trigger the kind of strong reaction we’d typically expect to see.

The critical insight is this: the market has zero obligation to move in the direction the majority is hoping for. In fact, market dynamics often punish wishful thinking. The majority waits for one thing; the market typically moves another way—specifically in whatever direction forces most participants to abandon their positions and give up.

The Trading Survivors: Price Followers, Not Predictors

The people who last long in this market aren’t the ones with the best guesses about future prices. They’re the ones who excel at one specific skill: following what price is actually doing, rather than following what other traders are saying it should do.

This is the real distinction. Don’t attempt to predict the exact bottom. Don’t let a single number—no matter how logical it seems—determine your entire trading strategy. Watch the price action itself. Protect your capital at all costs.

I’ll continue updating my perspective as market structure evolves. But right now, my approach is clear: slow down, observe carefully, and recognize that holding cash and waiting for genuine opportunity is superior to rushing into potential bottoms. That’s the framework I’m working with.

The deeper analysis remains reserved for those following my work more closely. For now, this is the general view I wanted to share.