Majority of Economists Skeptical: AI Will Not Lower Interest Rates

Objections to excessive optimism about AI are increasingly widespread among the global economic community. A comprehensive study from the Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago has revealed a surprising sentiment: nearly six out of ten economists express deep skepticism toward the narrative that the AI revolution will lead to significant interest rate cuts in the near future.

Study Reveals Economists’ Skepticism Toward AI’s Impact

The survey involving 45 leading economists, as cited by BlockBeats, uncovers a reality quite different from market expectations. These economists are skeptical that AI technology will have a meaningful influence on borrowing costs and prices over the next two years. Even in the best-case scenario, the projected decrease in PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation and the neutral interest rate is only below 0.2 percentage points—a figure much smaller than many optimistic investors have anticipated.

More interestingly, one-third of respondents hold a contrary view: they believe that the AI boom will actually force the Federal Reserve to slightly raise what is called the “neutral rate”—the level of interest rates at which borrowing costs neither stimulate nor hinder overall economic demand. This finding indicates that economists’ views on AI’s impact on monetary policy are far more diverse and nuanced than public assumptions suggest.

Implications for the Federal Open Market Committee

These economic objections create a complex dynamic for policymakers at the Federal Reserve. When seeking support from other FOMC members for a narrative of productivity growth driven by AI, policymakers face significant challenges. These skeptical economists serve as a sign that consensus on AI’s benefits for interest rate cuts remains far from certain.

This uncertainty also influences broader economic political dynamics. With strong economist objections to AI’s impact on interest rates, efforts to implement large-scale rate cuts—aligned with U.S. President Donald Trump’s preferences ahead of the November mid-term elections—become more segmented and difficult to achieve simultaneously. This skepticism indicates that the economic transformation promised by AI still requires concrete evidence before it can shift the global monetary policy paradigm.