Is a tough stance an art of negotiation or a cost game?

When it comes to tariff policies, many people think of The Art of the Deal. First raising the stakes, then slowly negotiating conditions—this approach is not unfamiliar in business negotiations. The problem is that at the national level, "price increases" can trigger more variables.
The logic of the new tariff policy seems simple: protect domestic industries, reduce dependence, and enhance autonomy. But in reality, global division of labor has long been highly nested. A single product may be produced across multiple countries. Imposing an additional tariff is like adding a toll booth in a complex system, inevitably reducing efficiency.
Humorously speaking, tariffs are like adding speed limits to global trade. The goods will still move, but fuel consumption increases. Companies won't immediately relocate factories because of a policy; they will calculate the overall costs: labor costs, supply stability, market size—none can be overlooked.
For capital markets, the biggest impact isn't the rate of tax but uncertainty. When rules are frequently adjusted, investors will raise risk premiums. Volatility thus intensifies, and sentiment becomes the main theme.
However, historical experience also shows us that economic systems have strong adaptive capabilities. Companies will seek alternative suppliers, markets will reprice, and new trade routes will gradually form. Tariffs change the rhythm but may not alter the final outcome. #特朗普宣布新关税政策