Assessing BlackBerry (TSX:BB) Valuation After Recent Share Price Swings

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 5:16 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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Why BlackBerry Stock Is On Investors’ Radar Today

BlackBerry (TSX:BB) is back on watchlists after recent price swings and a mixed return profile, with gains over the past week but weaker performance over the past month and past 3 months.

See our latest analysis for BlackBerry.

At around CA$4.77, BlackBerry’s recent 1-day and 7-day share price gains contrast with weaker 30-day and 90-day share price returns. Its 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year total shareholder returns all remain negative, suggesting momentum has been fading over a longer stretch.

If BlackBerry’s recent swings have you thinking about where else capital could work harder, this might be a good moment to scan 4 top founder-led companies for fresh ideas with strong founder involvement.

With CA$4.77 per share, a value score of 2, an intrinsic value estimate implying roughly a 20% discount, and a modest gap to analyst targets, you have to ask: is this a genuine opportunity, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 16% Undervalued

At around CA$4.77, the most followed narrative suggests a fair value near CA$5.68, which frames BlackBerry as trading at a discount and puts its software pivot in focus.

Rising adoption of advanced driver assistance and software defined vehicles, evidenced by QNX design wins with leading Tier 1s and platforms such as Snapdragon Ride Pilot and NVIDIA DRIVE, is expected to increase high margin royalty streams and accelerate overall revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is supporting that confidence in QNX royalties and software defined vehicles? The narrative leans heavily on future earnings, richer margins and a valuation multiple that assumes this shift plays out. The full write up lays out the revenue mix, profit profile and pricing power that need to align to support that fair value.

Result: Fair Value of CA$5.68 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there is still a chance that stronger QNX adoption or steadier Secure Communications recurring revenue could push earnings and valuation beyond what this narrative assumes.

Find out about the key risks to this BlackBerry narrative.

Another Angle On Valuation

The SWS DCF model puts fair value closer to CA$5.98 per share, which is a bigger gap than the CA$5.68 narrative target. Both views flag BlackBerry as undervalued, but the DCF gap is wider. Which set of assumptions do you trust more with your own money?

Story Continues  

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

BB Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026

Build Your Own BlackBerry Narrative

If you look at this and think the assumptions miss something, or you simply prefer your own work, you can build a complete thesis in minutes by starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your BlackBerry research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include BB.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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