(Combined with AI analysis) Lantu Automotive plans to go public on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange through an introduction on March 19, 2026: stock price forecast

Regarding the stock price forecast for VOYAH (Lantu Auto) planning to list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on March 19, 2026, via the introduction method, a comprehensive assessment should be conducted across multiple dimensions, including its fundamentals, market environment, valuation logic, peer comparison, liquidity expectations, and the unique nature of an “introduction listing.” The following analysis aims to provide investors with decision-making references, helping determine whether to reduce holdings at the high on the first day or to continue holding in the subsequent period.

1. Core Basis: Implicit Pricing from Dongfeng Group’s Privatization Plan This is currently the most authoritative and practically valuable anchor point.

According to Dongfeng Group Co., Ltd. (00489.HK)’s announced privatization and spin-off plan in August 2025:

Each Dongfeng H-share shareholder will receive:

• HKD 6.68 in cash (tax-free)
• 0.3552608 Lantu H-shares

The overall valuation of this scheme has been widely accepted by the market as HKD 10.85 per Dongfeng share (as estimated by institutions such as CICC, Huatai, etc.).

From this, the implied value per Lantu share can be inferred as: (10.85 − 6.68) ÷ 0.3552608 ≈ HKD 11.735 per share

This HKD 11.735 is an internal valuation derived in August 2025 based on Lantu’s 2024 sales data (RMB 19.4 billion revenue) and the then-current new energy valuation environment (PS ≈ 1.9x).

Note that this is not the IPO offering price but an accounting valuation used mainly for tax and equity conversion purposes, not directly determining secondary market prices.

2. Fundamentals Have Significantly Surpassed Expectations: Valuation Should Be Adjusted Upward From August 2025 to February 2026, Lantu’s operational data has improved markedly:

• Full-year 2025 sales reached approximately 140,000 units (estimated from January 2026 delivery reports), far exceeding 80,000 in 2024;
• Net profit in 2025 was RMB 1.017 billion (official disclosure), achieving full-year profitability;
• Monthly deliveries exceeded 10,000 units for five consecutive months, with high-end MPV “Dreamer” and pure electric sedan “Zhuiguang” making significant contributions;
• Market expectations for 2026 sales have generally been raised to 180,000–200,000 units.

This implies that, if still using a PS=1.9x valuation, the 2025 revenue of RMB 34.8 billion would correspond to a reasonable market value of: RMB 34.8 billion × 1.9 ≈ RMB 66.1 billion ≈ HKD 714 billion

With a total share capital of approximately 3.671 billion shares (based on previous disclosures), the theoretical per-share value is about HKD 19.45.

If referencing Ideal Auto’s current (early 2026) PS of about 2.2x (due to its profitability and high gross margin), Lantu’s valuation could reach HKD 22–24 per share.

3. Market Sentiment and Peer Benchmarking: Supports Premium Listing

• Li Auto (02015.HK) currently trades around HKD 160, with a 2025 PE of about 16x and PS of approximately 2.1x;
• Xpeng and NIO are still unprofitable, with PS below 1.0x;
• Leapmotor (09863.HK) is marginally profitable, with PS around 0.7x, and its stock price has been sluggish long-term;
• Lantu is the only new force with “profitable at listing + state-owned enterprise background + full-stack self-research + high-end positioning,” making it scarce.

Several brokerages (e.g., CICC, CITIC CLSA) issued reports in January 2026 with initial target price ranges of HKD 18–25.

4. Realistic Liquidity Expectations for Introduction Listing: Likely to Open High but Volatile Due to:

• No IPO fundraising or cornerstone investors backing;
• Only about 885 million shares in the initial float (roughly 24% of total shares);
• Most Dongfeng shareholders are passive holders with some willingness to realize gains;

Even with strong fundamentals, the first day may see a “gap up—volatility—pullback” pattern.

Historical references:

• Yum China (2020): +46% on first day, down 12% next day;
• KE Holdings (2022): +12% first day, then sideways for two weeks;
• J&T Express (2024): +33% first day, but halved after one month.

Conclusion: A high opening probability exists, but blindly chasing the high is not advisable.

5. Post-Calibration First-Day Price Forecast (Practical Version) Scenario | Trigger Conditions | Opening/Closing Price Forecast | Action Advice —|—|—|— Conservative | Weak market sentiment, HK stocks decline | Open HKD 14–16, close HKD 15±1 | Buy/Hold, undervalued significantly Baseline (Most Likely) | Market stable, recognition of profitability | Open HKD 18–22, close HKD 19–21 | Hold and observe, wait for Q1 data Optimistic | New energy sector rebound + capital chasing scarce assets | Open HKD 24–28, intraday spike above HKD 30 | Take partial profit on highs, keep some bottom holdings

Most likely first-day closing range: HKD 19–22

This range reflects a 70%+ upward revision from the implied HKD 11.735 valuation, based on fundamental improvements, yet does not overly assume future growth potential (still room compared to Ideal’s PS of 2.2x).

6. Practical Investment Advice (March 19) If opening ≤ HKD 18: → Consider it a mispricing opportunity, build or add to positions, hold for over 6 months.

If opening is HKD 19–23: → Do not chase the high, but also do not rush to sell. Observe trading volume in the first 30 minutes:

• If turnover >5% and price stabilizes, it indicates genuine buying interest; hold.
• If it surges above HKD 25 with declining volume, consider halving the position to lock in profits.

If opening ≥ HKD 25 (especially ≥ HKD 28): → Strongly consider reducing holdings, because:

• Corresponds to a 2025 PS > 2.5x, exceeding ideal levels;
• No new capital support, and no catalysts expected until Q1 delivery data in April.

Final Reminder: Lantu’s true value lies not in the first day’s listing but in whether it can sustain “profitability + growth” in 2026. Long-term investors may view HKD 20–22 as a reasonable cost basis; arbitrageurs (e.g., former Dongfeng shareholders) might see HKD 25+ as an opportunity to realize excess returns.

Always make decisions based on your own cost basis, risk appetite, and position management.