Analysis: BTC faith buyers' holdings have hit a new high for this cycle, and the bottom of the bear market is no longer far away.

On February 21, crypto analyst Murphy stated that, from both spatial and temporal dimensions in on-chain data analysis, the “bottom of the bear market” is no longer far away. Spatially, taking the previous cycle as an example, Bitcoin’s lowest point in June 2022 was close to $17,000, which is very close to the absolute bottom price of $15,000, indicating that it is already in the “bear bottom” zone. However, it took a full 7 months to break out and complete the bottom reconstruction. Currently, in terms of “space,” we are getting closer to the bear bottom, but in “time,” there is still a considerable distance.

It is important to observe the behavior of conviction buyers (CB), who are driven by faith. As the market’s smartest diamond hands, they tend to buy during declines and sell during rallies. In other words, rather than saying they often buy at the bottom, it is more accurate to say that the bottom is often constructed by this group of buyers. As of February, faith buyers have accumulated a total holding of 3.48 million BTC, once again setting a new record for this cycle. Since January of this year, they have increased their holdings significantly by 1.22 million BTC, far surpassing the levels seen during the previous cycle’s May 19 event, the LUNA collapse, and the FTX collapse.

Moreover, Bitcoin’s current price is higher than those key time points, and “smart decision-makers” are investing more capital at this time. Although the exact bottom position is difficult to predict, for the CB group, they do not rely on hitting the lowest point with a single all-in move. As long as the risk-reward ratio is favorable, they will continue to buy until all excess supply is absorbed. When supply and demand reach a balance, it forms the bottom range of the bear market. Subsequently, through months of consensus rebuilding, a new trend can emerge.

From historical data, the determination and strength demonstrated by current faith-driven buyers fully meet the standard of “the bear bottom is not far away.”