$ETH The tariff stone has finally been laid to rest. Whether it ends up hurting himself remains to be seen, but from Trump's angry remarks, it's clear that his personal reputation and the Republican Party are taking a hit. As Trump's most significant achievement since his second term as president, it has now been deemed illegal. The midterm elections are unlikely to be friendly to the Republican Party.

Although the Trump administration's IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, the Trump government can still invoke other laws to uphold the tariffs. Of course, these laws are likely to be more restrictive than IEEPA, reducing the scope and duration, which is a headache for Trump but good news for risk markets. While there may be short-term volatility, in the long run, it should help reduce inflation and uncertainty.

At least tariffs are less likely to be weaponized now. The Federal Reserve will also use tariffs as a tool to maintain interest rates. The second half of 2026 should be better. Of course, a tricky issue is whether tariffs will need to be refunded after being deemed illegal, which is a very headache-inducing problem. It probably won't be resolved in the short term; let's wait and see. Additionally, the geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran also need attention.

A rebound to around 1979-2004-2029 could be a good point to short, with targets near 1820.