Bonds have become a frequently traded asset class rather than a hedge as before:
Before COVID, the stock–bond correlation was mostly negative ( below 0). This means: - When stocks crash -> money flows into bonds - The 60/40 portfolio commonly seen in funds becomes effective with diversification. Since COVID, a “post-2020 structural shift” has emerged according to the IMF. Stocks and bonds tend to move in the same direction -> traditional portfolios of funds are no longer effective. Monetary policy and inflation have made bonds no longer a safe haven. Risk parity and diversified 60/40 funds have lost effectiveness. This is probably why Warren Buffett has been continuously moving to cash since after 2022.
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Bonds have become a frequently traded asset class rather than a hedge as before:
Before COVID, the stock–bond correlation was mostly negative ( below 0). This means:
- When stocks crash -> money flows into bonds
- The 60/40 portfolio commonly seen in funds becomes effective with diversification.
Since COVID, a “post-2020 structural shift” has emerged according to the IMF. Stocks and bonds tend to move in the same direction -> traditional portfolios of funds are no longer effective.
Monetary policy and inflation have made bonds no longer a safe haven. Risk parity and diversified 60/40 funds have lost effectiveness. This is probably why Warren Buffett has been continuously moving to cash since after 2022.