Assessing Nasdaq (NDAQ) Valuation As New Private Capital Indexes Expand Data Capabilities

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 1:35 PM GMT+9 3 min read

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NDAQ

-4.41%

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Why Nasdaq’s new private capital indexes matter for NDAQ investors

Nasdaq (NDAQ) has launched its Nasdaq Private Capital Indexes, a suite of benchmarks built from more than 14,000 institutional private market funds representing over US$11.4b in global assets under management.

These rules based indexes are designed to give institutional investors clearer performance comparisons across private equity, venture capital, private debt, fund of funds and real estate, an area where standardized measurement has often been limited.

See our latest analysis for Nasdaq.

Nasdaq shares have been under pressure recently, with a 1 month share price return of a 17% decline and a year to date share price return of a 14.64% decline. This comes even as the private capital index launch follows a period that included quarterly earnings, a dividend declaration and ongoing buybacks. Longer term total shareholder returns of 4.51% over 1 year and 83.12% over 5 years point to a much stronger multi year picture.

If this private markets news has you thinking about where else growth themes might show up, it could be a good moment to scout 23 top founder-led companies as potential next ideas.

With NDAQ down double digits over the past month, yet carrying a value score of 1 and trading at a discount to the consensus price target, is this pullback a genuine opportunity or is the market already accounting for future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 24% Undervalued

Nasdaq’s most followed narrative puts fair value at about $108, compared with the last close at $82.51. This frames the recent pullback against a higher implied anchor.

The enhanced partnership with AWS is expected to modernize Nasdaq’s market infrastructure across its financial services clientele, driving operational efficiencies, improving scalability, and potentially increasing market share, positively impacting net margins and future revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a tech focused earnings mix, margin uplift, and a premium P/E expectation all feed into that fair value? The full narrative lays out the revenue reset, the profit ramp, and the valuation multiple the market would need to accept for this story to line up.

Result: Fair Value of $108.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.

However, there are still real swing factors here, including tougher competition in listings and tech and the risk that larger fintech deals take longer to close.

Story continues  

Find out about the key risks to this Nasdaq narrative.

Another Take On Value: P/E Ratios Flash Caution

That $108 fair value from the narrative points to an undervalued story, but the simple P/E picture pushes back. Nasdaq trades on a 26.3x P/E, compared with 23.1x for the US Capital Markets industry and a 26.2x peer average, while our fair ratio sits lower at 16.8x.

In plain terms, the current valuation is richer than both the industry and the fair ratio the market could move towards. This raises the question of whether you are being paid enough for the risk if growth or margins do not line up with the more optimistic narrative.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NasdaqGS:NDAQ P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026

Build Your Own Nasdaq Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Nasdaq story in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Nasdaq research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NDAQ.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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