Supreme Court Trump tariff decision impact: What to expect as fight for billions in refunds begins

The US Supreme Court during a rain storm in Washington, DC, US, on Friday, Feb. 20, 2026.

Annabelle Gordon | Bloomberg | Getty Images

U.S. importers will be facing double hurdles trying to recover billions in tariff costs now that the Supreme Court has ruled President Donald Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are illegal.

Companies large and small may be eligible for refund payments that in total could reach hundreds of billions of dollars, but trade attorneys have warned that tariff refunds could be delayed, depending on how U.S. courts rule and how U.S. Customs goes about issuing payments.

Trump wrote in a social media post on Jan. 12 that “it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay.” He added: “It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay.”

Record tariff revenue has been recorded by the U.S. government, with tariff collections surging in January to $30 billion and reaching a year-to-date total of $124 billion. That is up 304% from the same period in 2025.

The Supreme Court decision could mean as much as $175 billion sought in refunds, but the ruling was silent on whether tariffs that have been paid under the higher rates will need to be refunded.

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In his dissent from the majority SCOTUS decision on Friday, Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote, “the Court’s decision is not likely to greatly restrict Presidential tariff authority going forward. But the Court’s decision is likely to generate other serious practical consequences in the near term. One issue will be refunds. Refunds of billions of dollars would have significant consequences for the U. S. Treasury. The Court says nothing today about whether, and if so how, the Government should go about returning the billions of dollars that it has collected from importers. But that process is likely to be a ‘mess,’ as was acknowledged at oral argument.”

Lori Mullins, director of operations at Rogers & Brown Custom Brokers, stressed that the decision does not grant or guarantee refunds. “They have remanded this back down to the lower courts to decide if refunds will be issued. Without knowing for certain, many believe that the refunds will not be issued retrospectively,” she said.

For importers hoping for refunds, “the answer is yes, we have a ruling but we do not have a ruling on if any refunds will be granted. That will be handled by a lower court at a future date/ time.”

“Keep in mind also that several countries have also already signed written agreements with specific tariff rates such as the signed agreement with the UK for a flat 15% tariff. This does not impact those already signed agreements so we are not sure, right now, how those country specific agreements will be impacted if at all,” Mullins added.

In the lead-up to the decision, importers and customs experts have been pushing back on claims about refunds being a “messy” process, saying that because the tariffs being paid are itemized, the process for refunding the money should be straightforward.

Even if courts ultimately rule refunds are required, importers betting on a cash infusion from tariff refunds should be aware there’s no set timeline and any rush for refunds could overwhelm the system and likely lead to long delays, Tim Keeler, partner and co-leader of international trade at Mayer Brown and former chief of staff for U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab, recently told CNBC.

The Court of International Trade is typically in charge of refund processes. For starters, the Court of International Trade and litigants who file cases against the tariffs, in coordination with the U.S. government, would need some time to figure out how to manage any refund process.

Trade experts have previously told CNBC the refund issue could be sent back to the CIT. The Department of Justice and the litigants in the tariff cases previously asked the CIT to appoint a steering committee to manage the more than 1,000 refund-related cases filed to date. It’s common for a steering committee to be established to manage the tariff repaying process,

Companies will not only be seeking billions in tariff refunds, but billions are tied up in customs bonds and collateral. Tariffs not only lead to additional import taxes, but by inflating the cost of the products, result in the need for importers to increase the value of customs bonds the government requires them to hold.

International trade experts told CNBC that with some tariffs increasing from 10%-25% or more for certain products, importers are facing customs bond amounts that now range from the minimum bond amount by regulation of $50,000 to as high as $450 million.

The increase in bond values have left some companies forced to put up additional money in the form of collateral to ensure they could pay the tariffs.

The rise in tariffs and related need for bonds and collateral has led to a historic number of “bond insufficiencies.” U.S. Customs told CNBC they identified over 24,000 customs bond “insufficiencies” valued at nearly $3.6 billion. That’s double the 2019 level when insufficiencies first soared due to Trump’s first-term tariffs under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act.

Importers have told CNBC because tariffs are itemized, as are their customs bonds and collateral documentation, in theory they should be able to receive their refunds quickly. However, trade attorneys also say it may also be difficult for companies to get any refunds on bond overpayment or collateral quickly because the insurers will want to make sure they are not exposed to any tariff payments.

Vincent Moy, international surety leader for Marsh Risk, recently told CNBC that companies should expect some lag time in receiving these customs bond funds due to insurance paperwork requirements. The insurance company will need to verify and audit the paper trail before it releases any collateral.

Some sureties have collateral return review procedures that can take 30 to 60 days for them to go back to underwriting to review. Many small and medium-sized businesses were expected to be reaching out to their insurers ahead of the SCOTUS decision to get the process of review started. “If you are hoping that the collateral will just be returned in due course, the squeaky wheel may make this happen a little bit faster,” Jennifer Diaz, board-certified international attorney at Diaz Trade Law, recently told CNBC.

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Even if the Supreme Court orders tariff refunds, they may take years

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