Why The Narrative Around National Bank of Canada TSX NA Is Shifting After New Analyst Targets

Simply Wall St

Wed, February 11, 2026 at 1:34 PM GMT+9 5 min read

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National Bank of Canada’s fair value estimate has been refined to about C$170.71 from C$170.57, a very small move that leaves the core valuation story essentially intact even as Street targets cluster between C$160 and C$188. The modest shift largely reflects how analysts are fine tuning their models around revenue growth and risk, while still debating how much upside remains as the bank pushes beyond its core Quebec base. Stay tuned to see how you can keep track of these ongoing price target resets and what they may signal for the next phase of the stock’s narrative.

Analyst Price Targets don’t always capture the full story. Head over to our Company Report to find new ways to value National Bank of Canada.

What Wall Street Has Been Saying

Recent analyst notes on National Bank of Canada give you a mix of constructive and more cautious views, with a clear spread in price targets and ratings that frame how professionals are thinking about valuation, execution, and growth beyond Quebec.

🐂 Bullish Takeaways

Scotiabank has reiterated an Outperform stance while moving its price target in stages, from C$159 to C$166 and more recently to C$188. This signals that the firm sees room for the shares to support higher valuation assumptions than before.

Canaccord, through analyst Matthew Lee, has taken its target from C$149 to C$160 while maintaining a Hold rating. This still points to some recognition that National Bank of Canada’s execution and earnings potential can justify a higher share price level than previously modeled.

Across these reports, the more constructive voices tend to reward the bank for its ability to keep broad growth ambitions on the table while still framing a path to earnings and return on equity targets that underpin the current range of price targets.

🐻 Bearish Takeaways

Raymond James has initiated coverage with a Market Perform rating and a C$168 price target, which signals a more measured stance compared with the high end of Street targets around C$188.

The Raymond James analyst highlights that rebuilding return on equity toward a stated 15% to 20% medium term target may be harder as National Bank of Canada expands outside Quebec into markets where its competitive advantages are described as less established. This perspective feeds into more cautious views on upside and execution risk.

When you line up the targets from C$160 at Canaccord, C$166 and C$188 at Scotiabank, and C$168 at Raymond James, the spread underlines ongoing debate about how much of the bank’s growth plans and margin ambitions are already reflected in the share price.

 






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Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there’s more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives or begin writing your own Narrative!

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What’s in the News

National Bank of Canada has opened a new office in the Dubai International Financial Centre to support Canadian clients pursuing business opportunities in the Middle East, led by Ali Fares as Managing Director and Head, Middle East and North Africa, Capital Markets.

The bank completed a share repurchase tranche, buying back 1,385,400 shares, representing 0.35% of shares, for a total of C$213 million under the buyback announced on August 27, 2025.

For the fourth quarter ended October 31, 2025, National Bank of Canada recorded impairment losses of $62 million on intangible assets.

The bank announced a quarterly dividend of C$1.2400 per share, payable on February 1, 2026, with record and ex dividend dates on December 29, 2025.

How This Changes the Fair Value For National Bank of Canada

The fair value estimate has moved slightly to about C$170.71 from C$170.57, keeping the modelled value effectively unchanged.

The discount rate now stands at about 7.27% versus 7.20%, a small adjustment that modestly affects the valuation output.

The revenue growth assumption is essentially flat at about 9.85%, with only a minimal refinement in the underlying figure.

The net profit margin remains effectively unchanged at about 28.75%, indicating no meaningful shift in profitability assumptions in the model.

The future P/E assumption is now about 20.75x versus 20.70x, a very small tweak that slightly adjusts the implied valuation multiple.

🔔 Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative

Narratives on Simply Wall St let you connect the story you see for a company with the numbers you are using, from your revenue and earnings estimates through to margins and fair value. Each Narrative ties a company’s business outlook to a financial forecast and a fair value, then compares that fair value to the current share price, and is updated as fresh news or earnings arrive. You can build and follow these Narratives easily from the Community page used by millions of investors.

If you want the full context behind National Bank of Canada’s fair value and price targets, you can read the original Narrative on Simply Wall St here and keep track of how the story evolves:

How dividend strength, acquisition integration and digital investments tie into revenue, margin and earnings forecasts.

What assumptions analysts are using for 3 year revenue growth, profit margins, earnings, P/E and discount rates.

Which risks around Quebec concentration, technology spend, competition and the wider economy could challenge those assumptions.

Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives

_ This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned._

Companies discussed in this article include NA.TO.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly._ Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com_

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