Bitcoin halving in 2024: A major market event has become history

The Bitcoin halving in April 2024 is a landmark event in the cryptocurrency space. This mechanized reduction in rewards—cutting miner rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC—not only alters Bitcoin’s supply dynamics but also profoundly impacts market participants. Currently, Bitcoin trades at $67.47K, nearly two years after the last halving, and the market has experienced corresponding cyclical shifts.

Bitcoin halving is an automated process that occurs approximately every four years, reflecting the core design principle set by Satoshi Nakamoto when creating Bitcoin. By gradually decreasing the supply of new coins, Bitcoin simulates the scarcity features of precious metals like gold. For investors and miners seeking to understand the mechanics of the crypto market, grasping the halving process is essential.

Understanding the Mechanism of Bitcoin Halving

What is Bitcoin halving? Simply put, it’s an event programmed into the Bitcoin code that automatically triggers after every 210,000 blocks are mined. This interval is roughly four years.

The primary purpose of halving is to control the growth of Bitcoin’s supply. When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, the reward for mining a block was 50 BTC. After three halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the reward has decreased stepwise to the current 3.125 BTC. This decreasing pattern will continue until around 2140, when all 21 million Bitcoins will have been mined.

Why does Bitcoin need this mechanism? Satoshi designed halving to create an artificial scarcity within a decentralized network. This mechanism is similar to the increasing costs of mining precious metals—over time, obtaining new Bitcoin becomes more difficult, which helps sustain its long-term value.

Bitcoin uses a proof-of-work consensus mechanism, where miners solve complex mathematical problems to validate transactions and add new blocks. This process safeguards the network’s integrity but consumes significant energy. In contrast, Ethereum transitioned to proof-of-stake in September 2022, drastically reducing energy consumption.

Historical Patterns: How Halving Affects the Market

From 2012 to 2020, three halving events demonstrated predictable cyclical patterns in the market.

Market performance around each halving:

• 2012 halving occurred on November 28, with Bitcoin at $12.35. About 150 days later, the price rose to $127.
• 2016 halving (July 9) saw Bitcoin at $650.63, and within 150 days, it increased to $758.81.
• 2020 halving (May 11) had Bitcoin at $8,740, rising to $10,943 after approximately 150 days.

These historical data reveal a clear cycle: a “accumulation phase” (about 13–22 months) typically occurs before and after halving, during which prices consolidate or trend slightly upward. This is followed by a strong upward phase (10–15 months), culminating in a correction or retracement.

In the April 2024 halving, at block height 840,000, rewards are reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Based on historical patterns, this event should follow similar market cycles. As of now (February 2026), the market appears to still be in a correction phase, with future performance depending on macroeconomic factors and institutional participation.

Real Impact of Halving on Miners

For Bitcoin miners, halving is a double-edged sword.

Each halving directly reduces block rewards, significantly impacting mining profitability in the short term. Small or less efficient miners may face losses during these periods, leading to industry consolidation—large mining pools and institutional miners gradually dominating the market.

However, history shows that miners do not typically shut down en masse due to short-term losses. Mining equipment is a heavy capital investment, and any shutdown entails potential profit loss. Most miners choose to hold on after halving, betting on future price recovery.

Mining difficulty has shown resilience through past halving events. Although theoretically, difficulty could decrease if miners go offline, in practice, such drops are rare. This reflects miners’ confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

It’s also worth noting that halving could indirectly impact network security. If Bitcoin’s price fails to rebound quickly enough to compensate miners, mining power could concentrate among a few large players, increasing the risk of a 51% attack. However, given Bitcoin’s current scale and decentralization, this risk remains low.

Investor Perspective: Why Halving Is a Focal Point

Contrasting with miners’ concerns, investors and traders often view halving as a potential bullish signal.

The core logic is supply constraint. As the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market halves, if demand remains stable or increases, prices are expected to rise. Many analysts base their forecasts on this logic, predicting new all-time highs post-2024 halving.

Research from Pantera Capital suggests Bitcoin could break $150,000 in the next four-year cycle. Standard Chartered projects a target of $120,000 by the end of 2024. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood even predicts Bitcoin reaching $1.5 million by 2030.

However, in the short term, halving can trigger market volatility. Uncertainty surrounding the event may cause sharp price swings. Over the longer term, factors influencing Bitcoin’s price extend well beyond halving, including:

• Macroeconomic environment: Federal Reserve interest rate policies, global inflation expectations directly impact risk assets.
• Institutional involvement: Approval of Bitcoin ETFs (especially spot ETFs) significantly lowers barriers for qualified investors.
• Technological developments: Features like Bitcoin Ordinals enhance network utility.
• Market sentiment: External factors such as AI trends, regulatory changes, and macro news influence overall risk appetite.

Many analysts believe that it may take several months to a year after halving for Bitcoin to enter a strong upward phase, aligning with the “accumulation period” pattern observed previously.

Chain Reaction in the Crypto Market

Bitcoin, as the largest and most influential crypto asset, exerts a ripple effect across the entire market.

Many altcoins, especially Ethereum (ETH), are highly correlated with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin experiences price swings due to halving, other cryptocurrencies often follow suit—either rising or falling.

Famous crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe observed that altcoins tend to reach cycle lows about 8–10 months before halving. His research indicates that ETH/USD and ETH/BTC pairs hit lows roughly 252 days before previous halving events (October 2015 and September 2019). This suggests savvy investors might find opportunities in altcoins within specific windows before halving.

Risks and Long-term Uncertainties

While historical patterns offer some predictive insight, the Bitcoin market remains unpredictable.

Past success does not guarantee future performance. As of February 2026, the market has not yet shown the strong bullish rally some optimistic analysts anticipated post-2024 halving. This reflects the complex array of factors influencing crypto markets.

Traders and investors should:

1. Conduct thorough research rather than blindly follow forecasts.
2. Develop clear risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders.
3. Recognize that leverage trading can amplify losses.
4. Avoid being swayed by short-term volatility, focusing instead on long-term fundamentals.

For holders seeking passive income, platforms offering lending and staking products can maximize existing assets’ yields, though these also carry risks.

Frequently Asked Questions about Halving

Q: When is the next Bitcoin halving?
A: The next halving is expected around 2028, reducing rewards to 1.5625 BTC, likely at block height 1,050,000.

Q: Has past halving accurately predicted timing?
A: Yes. The schedule is predictable because it’s based on fixed block heights (every 210,000 blocks). Unless the protocol changes, the timing is certain.

Q: Does halving affect transaction costs?
A: Halving itself does not directly change transaction fees. However, if it causes miners to reduce activity significantly, it could impact network congestion and fee dynamics.

Q: What happens when all Bitcoin is mined?
A: Once 21 million Bitcoins are mined (around 2140), no new supply will enter the market. Afterwards, miners will earn only transaction fees, which will become the primary incentive for securing the network.

Q: Do other cryptocurrencies also have halving?
A: Yes. Litecoin (LTC) and some other assets implement similar halving mechanisms to control supply.

Q: What is the long-term impact of halving on Bitcoin’s price?
A: Historically, halving has been viewed as a bullish signal because it reduces new supply. However, it’s not guaranteed. The crypto market is influenced by many factors, and past performance does not predict future results. Investors should base decisions on comprehensive analysis rather than single events.

Bitcoin’s 2024 halving has become a milestone, but the long-term story of the crypto market continues to unfold. For miners, investors, and the entire ecosystem, this event underscores Bitcoin’s core principle of maintaining long-term value through mechanized scarcity.