Bitcoin Halving Cycle: From the 2024 Event to New Investment Opportunities

The Bitcoin halving cycle is one of the most significant events impacting the global cryptocurrency market. Having just experienced the fourth halving event in April 2024, the Bitcoin community and investors are focusing on analyzing the long-term effects of this event on the broader crypto market.

Understanding the Halving Mechanism in the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle

Bitcoin’s halving cycle occurs approximately every four years or after about 210,000 blocks are mined. This mechanism is deeply embedded in Bitcoin’s code, reducing the block reward for miners for each additional block added to the blockchain.

When Bitcoin was launched in 2009, the mining reward for one block was 50 bitcoins. Over the course of historical halvings, the reward has been halved each time. The first halving (2012) reduced it to 25 BTC, the second (2016) to 12.5 BTC, the third (2020) to 6.25 BTC, and the recent 2024 halving decreased it to 3.125 BTC per block at block height 840,000.

This halving cycle is not a random event but part of Bitcoin’s monetary policy, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto to control inflation and mimic the scarcity of precious metals like gold. By slowing the creation of new bitcoins, halving helps maintain the cryptocurrency’s value.

Impact of Each Halving Cycle on Miners and Investors

Practical implications for Bitcoin miners

During a halving, the block reward halving directly affects mining profitability. Miners receive fewer bitcoins for the same computational effort, which can pose short-term economic challenges, especially for smaller and less efficient mining operations.

However, historical data shows that mining difficulty has remained relatively stable after halving, thanks to the long-term investment commitments of Bitcoin mining companies. Investing in mining hardware is costly, and any downtime can negatively impact future profits. Therefore, most miners choose to continue operations after halving, expecting that Bitcoin’s price will rise in the next bull cycle.

Bitcoin’s network is currently very large and diverse, with thousands of miners distributed worldwide. This decentralization prevents 51% attacks by ensuring no single group controls more than half of the total mining power.

Investor sentiment across halving cycles

Unlike miners who fear revenue reduction, investors often view halving cycles with expectations of significant price increases. This is because halving cuts the rate of new Bitcoin issuance by half, creating a scarcity effect as demand continues to grow.

While historical data shows a trend of rising prices post-halving, the event can also cause short-term volatility. Traders and investors may react unpredictably, leading to price swings in the days and weeks surrounding the event.

The long-term impact of halving on Bitcoin’s price depends on various factors such as global macroeconomic conditions, institutional investor sentiment, technological developments within the Bitcoin ecosystem (e.g., Bitcoin Ordinals), and overall market psychology.

Historical Data from Previous Halving Cycles

History indicates that each halving follows a certain pattern with three main phases:

Accumulation phase: After major price drops, the market enters an accumulation period lasting from 13 to 22 months. During this time, Bitcoin trades sideways or slightly upward with minimal large fluctuations.

Bull phase: Followed by a 10 to 15-month bullish trend. Although some corrections may occur, the overall trend is upward, setting new highs.

Pullback/bear phase: All bullish phases end with a correction. The correction period can last from one year up to over 600 days, depending on the cycle.

• First halving (November 28, 2012) at block 210,000 reduced reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Bitcoin price was $12.35 on halving day and rose to $127.00 after 150 days.
• Second halving (July 9, 2016) at block 420,000 reduced reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. Price was $650.63 on halving day and reached $758.81 after 150 days.
• Third halving (May 11, 2020) at block 630,000 reduced reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Price was $8,740.00 on halving day and increased to $10,943.00 after 150 days.
• Fourth halving (April 2024) at block 840,000 reduced reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. As of February 2026, Bitcoin trades around $67,100, down 30.58% from the same period last year but still significantly higher than at halving.

Approximately 31 more halvings are expected over the next cycles, with the fifth projected for 2028, reducing rewards to 1.5625 BTC at block 1,050,000.

Bitcoin Price Predictions Across Halving Cycles

Based on past market cycles, analysts have made various predictions:

• Pantera Capital forecasts Bitcoin reaching nearly $150,000 in the next 4-year halving cycle.
• Standard Chartered raised its prediction to $120,000 by the end of 2024 (around halving).
• Jesse Myers, co-founder of Bitcoin Onramp, predicts BTC will surpass $100,000 but not before halving.
• Robert Kiyosaki, author of “Rich Dad Poor Dad,” agrees with the $100,000+ forecast post-halving.
• Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of the individuals Satoshi Nakamoto cited, predicts BTC could reach over $100,000 even before halving.
• Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, shares a similar view, expecting Bitcoin to hit new highs before halving.
• Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, is more optimistic, projecting Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030.
• The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model also predicts a price around $460,000 by May 2025.

However, it’s observed that the percentage gains in each cycle tend to decrease over time. Based on previous declines, future gains are unlikely to exceed 500%. This does not account for increasing institutional interest from the U.S. and potential spot Bitcoin ETFs, which could inject substantial capital into the market.

Impact of Halving Cycles on Altcoins

Bitcoin’s halving cycle often has a ripple effect across the entire crypto market. As the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Bitcoin’s price movements significantly influence the trend of most altcoins.

Renowned crypto strategist Michaël van de Poppe suggests that the ideal time to invest in altcoins is 8 to 10 months before Bitcoin halving. Historical data indicates that ETH/USD and ETH/BTC pairs tend to bottom exactly 252 days before the halving event.

Ethereum (ETH) has a particularly close market relationship with Bitcoin. When Bitcoin experiences significant price swings due to halving, it can impact the broader market. However, note that Ethereum transitioned to a Proof of Stake (PoS) mechanism in September 2022 (Ethereum 2.0), differing from Bitcoin’s Proof of Work (PoW), which introduces some divergence in their dynamics.

Trading Strategies for the Next Halving Cycle

With the next halving expected in 2028, investors have several strategies to maximize gains:

Buy and hold long-term: For beginners, purchasing Bitcoin and HODLing until the next bull cycle is a simple, effective approach.

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA): Instead of a lump sum, invest smaller amounts regularly to smooth out entry points.

Active trading: Use technical, fundamental, and sentiment analysis to buy low and sell high in spot or futures markets, capitalizing on volatility around halving.

Automated trading: Trading bots can automate strategies like Futures Grid, Spot Grid, or DCA Grid, especially useful during volatile halving periods.

Arbitrage: Exploit price differences across exchanges by buying low on one and selling high on another.

Earning from investment products: While holding Bitcoin, utilize staking, savings, or structured products (e.g., Shark Fin, Dual Investment) to generate passive income.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s halving cycle is a recurring event with long-term implications for the crypto landscape. The fourth halving in April 2024 marked a significant milestone, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC.

However, historical evidence suggests that the true impact of halving depends not only on the event itself but also on macroeconomic conditions, investor sentiment, technological developments, and global trends. Savvy investors will monitor each phase of the halving cycle and adjust their strategies accordingly to maximize opportunities in the coming years.