MOL stock price rises despite earnings guidance falling short of expectations

Investing.com – MOL (MOLB) stock rose 2.7% on Friday, despite the Hungarian oil and gas company’s FY2026 guidance falling below analyst expectations.

The company reported EBITDA that exceeded market consensus estimates by 7%, but was 14% below Morgan Stanley’s forecast. However, MOL’s FY2026 EBITDA guidance was 9% below market consensus and 13% below Morgan Stanley’s expectations.

The consumer services sector was the main contributor exceeding market consensus, with EBITDA 10% above market expectations and 24% above Morgan Stanley’s forecast. This sector also benefited from currency appreciation.

The downstream sector was 20% below Morgan Stanley’s expectations. According to analysts, about one-third of the discrepancy is attributed to petrochemical operations, while two-thirds relate to refining operational costs.

For 2026, management expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $3 billion, compared to Morgan Stanley’s forecast of about $3.5 billion and the market consensus of $3.3 billion. The lower figure is partly driven by ramp-up issues at the Danube refinery.

MOL’s FY2026 pre-tax profit guidance is $1.5 billion, 12% below Morgan Stanley’s forecast and 20% below market consensus. The adjusted CCS EBITDA guidance is $3 billion, also 13% below Morgan Stanley’s expectations and 9% below market consensus.

Production guidance is 95,000 to 97,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, in line with market expectations, supported by organic expansion of oil fields in Iraq and Kazakhstan. Capital expenditure guidance for FY2026 is $1.5 billion, which is viewed as a positive signal.

Analysts note that ongoing negotiations to acquire a stake in Serbia’s NIS and continued disruptions in crude oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline are recent key drivers of the company’s stock story.

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