Nvidia Looks For Boost From Q4 Earnings, GTC News

2026-02-20 14:35:36

Nvidia (NVDA) stock has been trending sideways for the last four months, weighed down by host of concerns related to the artificial intelligence megatrend. The AI chipmaker has two potential catalysts ahead: its fiscal fourth-quarter results next week and its upcoming GTC conference.

First up is the company’s financial report for the quarter ended Jan. 25, due out late Wednesday. Analysts polled by FactSet expect Nvidia to earn an adjusted $1.52 a share on sales of $65.71 billion in fiscal Q4. In the year-earlier period, it earned an adjusted 89 cents a share on sales of $39.33 billion.

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For the current quarter, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.67 a share on sales of $71.84 billion. In last year’s fiscal first quarter, Nvidia earned an adjusted 81 cents a share on sales of $44.06 billion.

Wall Street analysts hope Nvidia’s fiscal Q4 report will lessen concerns about data center funding issues and any AI spending slowdown.

Other worries include access to the China market amid international trade squabbles and whether Nvidia can get enough capacity from chip foundry Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM).

Nvidia Positioned To Win AI Race

Oppenheimer analyst Rick Schafer expressed confidence in Nvidia’s performance heading into its fiscal Q4 report. On Wednesday, he reiterated his outperform rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of 265. Nvidia stock ended regular-session trading Thursday down a fraction to 187.90.

“Nvidia is the ubiquitous AI platform best positioned to win, in our view.” Schafer said in a client note. “We remain long-term buyers.”

RBC Capital Markets analyst Srini Pajjuri said he expects a “solid quarter” from Nvidia. He maintained his outperform rating on Nvidia stock with a price target of 240 in a report Wednesday. He sees GTC as another potential catalyst.

Nvidia will kick off its GTC conference in San Jose, Calif., on March 16. Chief Executive Jensen Huang will give a keynote presentation starting at 11 a.m. Pacific.

Nvidia Stock Consolidating

Nvidia stock has been in a consolidation pattern for 16 weeks at a buy point of 212.19, according to MarketSurge charts. That buy point is also the stock’s all-time high, reached on Oct. 29. Lately it has found support at its 50-day moving average line.

On Tuesday, Nvidia and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) announced a multiyear strategic partnership. Under the expanded arrangement, Meta will use Nvidia central processing units and networking gear, along with “millions” of Blackwell and Rubin graphics processing units, for its AI data centers.

“While specifics of the deal are still unknown (value, power, etc.), we view this announcement as another positive catalyst for Nvidia into 2026 and beyond, reaffirming that hyperscaler propensity to spend on AI infrastructure remains strong and Nvidia will be a primary beneficiary,” Needham analyst Quinn Bolton said in a client note. He rates Nvidia stock as buy with a price target of 240.

Nvidia Stock On Two IBD Lists

Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson said the partnership reduces the risk that Meta will switch to Google tensor processing units (TPUs) from Alphabet (GOOGL).

“We believe Nvidia’s stock performance in recent months has in part lagged due to competitive concerns (including Meta’s speculated use of Google TPUs),” Bryson said in a report. “However, our view remains that Nvidia’s architectures will remain the dominant choice for AI for the foreseeable future (and the primary beneficiary of accelerating spend).”

A bigger concern for Nvidia in 2026 will be supply concerns for necessary component and materials, including memory, TSMC wafers and chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) packaging, Bryson said.

Nvidia stock is on two IBD lists: Leaderboard and Tech Leaders.

Follow Patrick Seitz on X at @IBD_PSeitz for more stories on consumer technology, software and semiconductor stocks.

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