"Google's Dream Team" Responds to AI Bubble Skepticism: This is the Industrial Revolution, but 10 times faster and 10 times larger in scale

Google’s core leadership team gathers in India, responding to market concerns over massive capital expenditures, disclosing key business data, and comparing the current AI wave to a “10x faster industrial revolution.”

On February 18th, at the AI summit held in India, Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, and Google Senior Vice President James Manyika appeared together on stage.

Facing market skepticism about AI investment returns and concerns over an “AI bubble,” Google executives elaborated in detail on three dimensions: the technological evolution cycle, commercialization validation data, and macroeconomic impacts. Pichai revealed in the discussion that Google’s cloud business backlog orders have doubled year-over-year to $240 billion.

Addressing “the elephant in the room”: It’s not a bubble, but new infrastructure

As tech giants’ capital spending on AI infrastructure continues to rise, Wall Street’s anxiety over cost recovery cycles grows. When asked how CEOs can demonstrate cost rationality to boards, Pichai candidly compared the current AI moment to a major infrastructure cycle in history. Pichai stated:

“In some contexts, people talk about this as an industrial revolution, but at 10 times the speed and scale.”

He likened current AI investments to the US railway system or national highway system, viewing these as highly leveraged investments capable of driving enormous growth and value.

To support this view, Pichai disclosed key data highlights:

“In the past year alone, cloud backlog orders have doubled to $240 billion. This indicates potential returns on the other side. Therefore, we are investing to meet this demand.”

For Google, this investment not only serves the cloud business but also permeates search, YouTube, Waymo, and emerging ventures like Isomorphic Labs. Pichai emphasized that, given technological progress and observed opportunities, “these investments are justified.”

Timeline for AGI: at least 5 to 10 more years

As head of DeepMind, Hassabis provided a rigorous outlook on the definition and timeline for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

Hassabis set a high standard for AGI, stating that the system must demonstrate all human cognitive abilities, including creativity, long-term planning, and better memory utilization. He admitted that today’s systems, while impressive, have not yet reached that level. Hassabis said:

“I believe we still have a way to go, at least 5 to 10 years.”

He views AGI as the ultimate accelerant for scientific discovery and revealed the latest progress of AlphaFold: currently, over 3 million researchers worldwide use the tool, with more than 200,000 scientists in India alone leveraging AI for biological exploration.

Employment and economy: focus on “tasks” rather than “jobs”

Regarding potential unemployment caused by AI, James Manyika proposed an analytical framework separating “tasks” from “jobs.” Manyika pointed out:

“Most jobs are composed of different tasks… there may be some jobs decreasing, many jobs growing, and even more changing.”

He emphasized the existence of “lag effects” in technological change, meaning there is a time gap between the disappearance of old jobs and the creation of new ones.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, Manyika believes AI is the first technology capable of fundamentally empowering small businesses. Through collaborations like the “Vani project,” Google is working to break language barriers, enabling small business owners to build tech systems via voice commands without needing to be tech experts.

New positioning in the Indian market: full-stack participant

On regional market strategy, Pichai’s perspective on India has shifted significantly. He no longer sees India merely as a huge user market but as a “full-stack player” in AI. Pichai stated:

“I see Google as a full-stack company. I believe India will also clearly become a full-stack player in AI.”

He reviewed the past decade’s “Digital India” transformation and believes we are now at the “beginning of a ten-year AI revolution.” From Bangalore’s vibrant developer ecosystem to the building of local AI models, Google sees India as having the potential for comprehensive breakthroughs across AI infrastructure, application layers, and innovation layers.

Below is the full translation of the interview with Google executives:

Host:

Good afternoon, everyone. Sundar, Demis, James, you know, sitting here with you three feels like witnessing an AI nirvana. Like the gathering of three giants in AI. It’s fantastic. And your visit to India coincides with the AI boom sweeping the country. When you attended the India AI summit, what was the one thing you looked forward to most? I’ll start with a quick Q&A. So, let’s begin with you, Sundar.

Sundar Pichai:

Okay, maybe I’d say, this is a transformative moment. Reflecting on coming to India about ten years ago, seeing the “Digital India” transformation and the excitement back then, I feel nostalgic. Witnessing the progress over these ten years has been extraordinary. So, in a way, this feels like the start of a ten-year AI revolution. So, yes, transformative.

Demis Hassabis:

Well, I just came from Bangalore, where I gave a talk at the Indian Institute of Science. The graduate students there left a deep impression on me—they’re full of energy. We held a large lecture with about 700 students. Seeing their enthusiasm and energy for AI, and their excitement about the opportunities we bring, was really interesting. So I think I felt that atmosphere throughout the summit, and it was very exciting.

Host:

You’re now very good at exponential thinking. Imagine 700 on an exponential scale. You’ll see about 50,000 people in one place, all passionate about AI. That’s what you’re about to witness, James.

James Manyika:

I think this is an extraordinary moment for India and the Global South, showcasing a few things. First, driving adoption and demand is entirely possible. Second, building and innovating in AI is also entirely possible. I think we often assume these things won’t happen in the Global South. I believe this is a great opportunity to demonstrate that.

Host:

No, fantastic, Sundar. I’ll start with you because my job is to figure out the future. So I’d like you to make a little future prediction for India. Let’s think five years ahead, okay? What will AI success look like for India? Will we be the largest user base? Will we be builders? Will we be shapers of the rules? And if I may add, to achieve this, what is the one thing we must do now? Whatever goals we set for ourselves, or what you think we should set.

Sundar Pichai:

Listen, I travel to many countries around the world, and I truly believe India is unique at this moment. I think it has the opportunity to play a significant role in all three aspects. I see Google as a full-stack company. I believe India will also clearly become a full-stack player in AI. To do that, it’s important to ensure… I think that’s exactly the point of this AI summit.

Sundar Pichai:

You must invest in all the foundational things you need: research, knowledge, and existing institutions here. The government should promote AI across the country and in the economy, ensuring it benefits the people. This means adopting AI across all sectors and in a way that brings progress into everyday life—farmers, students, healthcare workers, and doctors. And I believe the foundation is being laid. You can see that even just this week, announcements on infrastructure investments show this. So I think that’s a good foundation for India to reach its goals. But progress depends on spreading this technology, and I believe India can play a role in all three areas.

Host:

So, changing the lives of women at the very end of the food chain—that’s what success should look like, right?

Sundar Pichai:

Exactly right.

Host:

Great. Demis, next I ask you. You know, I’m a huge fan of your work. You know, with AlphaFold, what’s most exciting isn’t just what it can do, but how many researchers and scientists it enables to explore and discover things we couldn’t even imagine a few years ago, right? That’s what really excites me.

Host:

So, when you think about many problems to solve, but if we have to pick one or two strategic bets for India—areas where we should deeply invest and commit, and say this is where we want to be global leaders—healthcare, education, which two would you prioritize?

Demis Hassabis:

Well, first, I’m very proud of the impact projects like AlphaFold have generated. Over 3 million researchers worldwide are using it, including more than 200,000 in India. Nearly every biologist and researcher on the planet is using it. I think this is just the beginning of AI’s impact on science and medicine. I believe India can play a very leading role in applying AI to science.

Demis Hassabis:

Maybe I’d tell India, and many other countries (I also advise the UK), to double down on areas that are already strong and important for the country, like agriculture, and become leaders in applying AI to those fields. So, I see agriculture as a key area—I’ve discussed with some ministers about using AI to adapt crops to climate change, perhaps leveraging tools like AlphaFold to help achieve this. Another area could be Bollywood and the creative industries, using the latest AI tools. Actually, James just mentioned—maybe he can talk about this.

Host:

How will DeepMind collaborate with the Indian government on such moonshot projects?

Demis Hassabis:

We’re collaborating in all the ways that Sundar just announced. And we’re ready to go deeper if the government wants—whether through our core foundation model Gemini, our scientific tools like AlphaFold, or open-source work like Gemma. So I think we can help the Indian government do a lot.

Host:

James, I want to ask you the elephant in the room—the employment issue everyone’s curious about. I heard some of your comments at Davos, very interesting—you talked about how every technological change causes jobs to shift, disappear, and new jobs to emerge, but not simultaneously. There’s a lag. So, two questions: first, how should governments handle this lag, especially in a country like India with a young population? Second, what must we do to ensure we ultimately become job creators?

James Manyika:

No, I think this might be one of the most important issues for countries, governments, and societies to consider. I believe it’s crucial to remember that when thinking about AI and employment, it’s more meaningful to think about specific tasks rather than entire jobs.

Because most jobs are composed of different tasks… when you look at it this way, you realize that, as you said, some careers may decline, many will grow, and even more will change.

It’s important to keep in mind that there are “lag effects” in technological change—that there’s a time gap between the disappearance of old jobs and the creation of new ones.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, Manyika believes AI is the first technology capable of fundamentally empowering small businesses. Through collaborations like the “Vani project,” Google is working to break language barriers, enabling small business owners to build tech systems via voice commands without needing to be tech experts.

Host:

Changing the lives of women at the very end of the food chain—that’s what success should look like, right?

Sundar Pichai:

Absolutely.

Host:

Great. Demis, I’ll ask you next. You know, I’m a huge fan of your work. You know, with AlphaFold, what’s most exciting isn’t just what it can do, but how many researchers and scientists it enables to explore and discover things we couldn’t even imagine a few years ago, right? That’s what really excites me.

Host:

So, when you think about many problems to solve, but if we have to pick one or two strategic bets for India—areas where we should deeply invest and commit, and say this is where we want to be global leaders—healthcare, education, which two would you prioritize?

Demis Hassabis:

Well, first, I’m very proud of the impact projects like AlphaFold have generated. Over 3 million researchers worldwide are using it, including more than 200,000 in India. Nearly every biologist and researcher on the planet is using it. I think this is just the beginning of AI’s impact on science and medicine. I believe India can play a very leading role in applying AI to science.

Demis Hassabis:

Maybe I’d tell India, and many other countries (I also advise the UK), to double down on areas that are already strong and important for the country, like agriculture, and become leaders in applying AI to those fields. So, I see agriculture as a key area—I’ve discussed with some ministers about using AI to adapt crops to climate change, perhaps leveraging tools like AlphaFold to help achieve this. Another area could be Bollywood and the creative industries, using the latest AI tools. Actually, James just mentioned—maybe he can talk about this.

Host:

How will DeepMind collaborate with the Indian government on such moonshot projects?

Demis Hassabis:

We’re collaborating in all the ways that Sundar just announced. And we’re ready to go deeper if the government wants—whether through our core foundation model Gemini, our scientific tools like AlphaFold, or open-source work like Gemma. So I think we can help the Indian government do a lot.

Host:

James, I want to ask you the elephant in the room—the employment issue everyone’s curious about. I heard some of your comments at Davos, very interesting—you talked about how every technological change causes jobs to shift, disappear, and new jobs to emerge, but not simultaneously. There’s a lag. So, two questions: first, how should governments handle this lag, especially in a country like India with a young population? Second, what must we do to ensure we ultimately become job creators?

James Manyika:

No, I think this might be one of the most important issues for countries, governments, and societies to consider. I believe it’s crucial to remember that when thinking about AI and employment, it’s more meaningful to think about specific tasks rather than entire jobs.

Because most jobs are composed of different tasks… when you look at it this way, you realize that, as you said, some careers may decline, many will grow, and even more will change.

It’s important to keep in mind that there are “lag effects” in technological change—that there’s a time gap between the disappearance of old jobs and the creation of new ones.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, Manyika believes AI is the first technology capable of fundamentally empowering small businesses. Through collaborations like the “Vani project,” Google is working to break language barriers, enabling small business owners to build tech systems via voice commands without needing to be tech experts.

Host:

Changing the lives of women at the very end of the food chain—that’s what success should look like, right?

Sundar Pichai:

Absolutely.

Host:

Great. Demis, I’ll ask you next. You know, I’m a huge fan of your work. You know, with AlphaFold, what’s most exciting isn’t just what it can do, but how many researchers and scientists it enables to explore and discover things we couldn’t even imagine a few years ago, right? That’s what really excites me.

Host:

So, when you think about many problems to solve, but if we have to pick one or two strategic bets for India—areas where we should deeply invest and commit, and say this is where we want to be global leaders—healthcare, education, which two would you prioritize?

Demis Hassabis:

Well, first, I’m very proud of the impact projects like AlphaFold have generated. Over 3 million researchers worldwide are using it, including more than 200,000 in India. Nearly every biologist and researcher on the planet is using it. I think this is just the beginning of AI’s impact on science and medicine. I believe India can play a very leading role in applying AI to science.

Demis Hassabis:

Maybe I’d tell India, and many other countries (I also advise the UK), to double down on areas that are already strong and important for the country, like agriculture, and become leaders in applying AI to those fields. So, I see agriculture as a key area—I’ve discussed with some ministers about using AI to adapt crops to climate change, perhaps leveraging tools like AlphaFold to help achieve this. Another area could be Bollywood and the creative industries, using the latest AI tools. Actually, James just mentioned—maybe he can talk about this.

Host:

How will DeepMind collaborate with the Indian government on such moonshot projects?

Demis Hassabis:

We’re collaborating in all the ways that Sundar just announced. And we’re ready to go deeper if the government wants—whether through our core foundation model Gemini, our scientific tools like AlphaFold, or open-source work like Gemma. So I think we can help the Indian government do a lot.

Host:

James, I want to ask you the elephant in the room—the employment issue everyone’s curious about. I heard some of your comments at Davos, very interesting—you talked about how every technological change causes jobs to shift, disappear, and new jobs to emerge, but not simultaneously. There’s a lag. So, two questions: first, how should governments handle this lag, especially in a country like India with a young population? Second, what must we do to ensure we ultimately become job creators?

James Manyika:

No, I think this might be one of the most important issues for countries, governments, and societies to consider. I believe it’s crucial to remember that when thinking about AI and employment, it’s more meaningful to think about specific tasks rather than entire jobs.

Because most jobs are composed of different tasks… when you look at it this way, you realize that, as you said, some careers may decline, many will grow, and even more will change.

It’s important to keep in mind that there are “lag effects” in technological change—that there’s a time gap between the disappearance of old jobs and the creation of new ones.

For small and medium-sized enterprises, Manyika believes AI is the first technology capable of fundamentally empowering small businesses. Through collaborations like the “Vani project,” Google is working to break language barriers, enabling small business owners to build tech systems via voice commands without needing to be tech experts.

Host:

Changing the lives of women at the very end of the food chain—that’s what success should look like, right?

Sundar Pichai:

Absolutely.

Host:

Great. Demis, I’ll ask you next. You know, I’m a huge fan of your work. You know, with AlphaFold, what’s most exciting isn’t just what it can do, but how many researchers and scientists it enables to explore and discover things we couldn’t even imagine a few years ago, right? That’s what really excites me.

Host:

So, when you think about many problems to solve, but if we have to pick one or two strategic bets for India—areas where we should deeply invest and commit, and say this is where we want to be global leaders—healthcare, education, which two would you prioritize?

Demis Hassabis:

Well, first, I’m very proud of the impact projects like AlphaFold have generated. Over 3 million researchers worldwide are using it, including more than 200,000 in India. Nearly every biologist and researcher on the planet is using it. I think this is just the beginning of AI’s impact on science and medicine. I believe India can play a very leading role in applying AI to science.

Demis Hassabis:

Maybe I’d tell India, and many other countries (I also advise the UK), to double down on areas that are already strong and important for the country, like agriculture, and become leaders in applying AI to those fields. So, I see agriculture as a key area—I’ve discussed with some ministers about using AI to adapt crops to climate change, perhaps leveraging tools like AlphaFold to help achieve this. Another area could be Bollywood and the creative industries, using the latest AI tools. Actually, James just mentioned—maybe he can talk about this.

Host:

How will DeepMind collaborate with the Indian government on such moonshot projects?

Demis Hassabis:

We’re collaborating in all the ways that Sundar just announced. And we’re ready to go deeper if the government wants—whether through our core foundation model Gemini, our scientific tools like AlphaFold, or open-source work like Gemma. So I think we can help the Indian government do a lot.