Analysis: Supreme Court ruling could trigger over $175 billion in tariff refunds

CycleProphet · 2026-02-20T12:16:28+00:00

If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the emergency tariffs implemented by Trump are invalid, over $175 billion in U.S. tariff revenue could be at risk of being refunded. This estimate is based on the budget model from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. If refunds occur, they will exceed the total expenditures of the Department of Transportation and the Department of Justice.

CycleProphet

2026-02-20 12:16:28

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Deep Tide TechFlow News, February 20 — According to Jinshi Data, Penn’s Wharton School of Business budget model economist said on Friday that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the large-scale emergency tariffs implemented by President Trump are invalid, over $175 billion in U.S. tariff revenue could be at risk of being refunded. Leslie Boller, senior economist at Penn’s Wharton School of Business Budget Model (PWBM), stated that they based this estimate on a bottom-up forecasting model. The model analyzes specific tariffs imposed by Trump, including those levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), using tariff rates divided by product and country. Trump has been touting the revenue generated from tariffs; the Congressional Budget Office estimates that it will bring in about $300 billion annually over the next decade. However, estimates show that if the court rules against Trump, a significant portion of the tariffs may need to be refunded. The $175 billion refund would exceed the combined expenditures of the Department of Transportation’s $127.6 billion and the Department of Justice’s $44.9 billion in fiscal year 2025.

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