Hong Kong Stock Tech Stocks Diverge: "AI Newcomers" Favored, "Monetization Concerns" Drag Down Internet Giants

Hong Kong stocks resumed trading after the Lunar New Year holiday, with technology stocks showing a divergence trend. Generative AI startups surged, while traditional internet giants pulled back, as capital preferences shifted from “comprehensive platforms” to more pure AI targets.

The spectacular performance of Chinese humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala ignited enthusiasm among Hong Kong stock investors. The robotics sector saw UBTECH rise as much as 13% at one point on Friday, and Yuejiang soared nearly 23%, marking the largest intraday gain since April.

As of the time of writing, AI large model companies Zhipu and MiniMax rose 31% and 13% respectively in Hong Kong, continuing their strong momentum since their January listings, with both stocks having gained more than four times in total.

In contrast, Alibaba and Tencent, despite impressive business data during the holiday period, saw their stock prices dip by as much as 1.83% and 0.29% respectively. While taking profits, the market is more focused on evaluating the intensity of AI investments by major firms and the pace of return realization.

Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd., pointed out that investors are scrutinizing the actual contribution of AI projects to profitability more strictly, and combined with regulatory attention to platform promotional competition, short-term valuations are under pressure.

Capital Rotation Accelerates, Pure AI Stocks Lead the Rally

Before and after the holiday, Chinese AI companies accelerated the release of updated models and new features. The holiday itself also served as a window for users to test new applications and digital services, further amplifying market attention to AI themes. The impressive performance of Chinese humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala ignited enthusiasm among Hong Kong stock investors.

Meanwhile, competitive factors are also driving the pace. Bloomberg mentioned that many companies aim to complete product iterations before DeepSeek’s next major release. This expectation has strengthened investors’ risk appetite for foundational model tracks and pushed capital toward more “pure” AI companies.

Investment Banks Bullish on MiniMax, Price Targets and Revenue Forecasts Expand Imagination Space

Wall Street institutions are also supporting the rally. Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and UBS have completed coverage of MiniMax, with ratings equivalent to “Buy.”

Among them, UBS has set a target price of HKD 1,000. Morgan Stanley expects MiniMax’s revenue to reach approximately $700 million by 2027, implying up to tenfold growth potential over the next two years.

Internet Giants Pull Back, Investment and Returns Repriced

Alibaba and Tencent disclosed solid operational data during the holiday, but market focus has shifted to “investment and return.” Alibaba’s AI application Qianwen handled 130 million orders during the Lunar New Year activities, and Tencent’s Yuanbao app had over 50 million daily active users.

However, investors are assessing whether this enthusiasm can translate into visible profit contributions and at what cost to compete for users. Bloomberg estimates that Alibaba and Meituan may have provided about $870 million in consumer incentives during the holiday to boost engagement, while Tencent plans to invest around $145 million.

According to Alibaba’s official release, its Qianwen app launched the “Spring Festival Guest Invitation Plan,” announcing an investment of about 30 billion RMB to incentivize consumers with food, entertainment, cash red envelopes, and free services during the holiday.

Dilin Wu stated that traditional giants like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent are under pressure, related to their core businesses in advertising, e-commerce, and gaming growing slower than market previously priced in. When AI can “meaningfully” contribute to profits is becoming a new valuation constraint.

Regulatory Focus on Promotions and “Involution” Competition, Platform Strategy Space Shrinks

Regulatory signals are further increasing pressure on platforms. According to CCTV News, the State Administration for Market Regulation held a meeting with major online platform companies on February 13, requiring them to curb promotional practices and eliminate “involution”-style competition. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD.com, and others were among those summoned.

Against the backdrop of increased subsidies and AI investments by platform companies, this event has heightened market sensitivity to promotional intensity, expense ratios, and profit sustainability, further exacerbating valuation divergence between “AI newcomers” and internet giants.

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