The Evolution of Bitcoin Bull Market Cycles: An Analysis of Market Trends from 2013 to 2026

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple significant bull and bear cycles. Each bull cycle has provided investors with profound market insights. By February 2026, Bitcoin’s development history has become sufficiently clear, allowing us to understand the cyclical patterns behind this largest crypto asset by analyzing historical trends and current market conditions.

Understanding the Internal Mechanism of Bitcoin Bull Cycles

Bitcoin’s bull cycles are typically driven by several key factors. Unlike traditional financial markets, Bitcoin bull cycles are highly event-driven, with each cycle accompanied by unique market participants and policy backgrounds.

What drives the formation of bull cycles?

Historically, each Bitcoin bull cycle has been closely related to the following factors:

• Halving events: Approximately every four years, Bitcoin’s halving reduces new coin issuance, creating scarcity. After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin increased by 5,200%; after 2016, by 315%; after 2020, by 230%.
• Policy and regulatory breakthroughs: From the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 to ongoing institutional participation, improvements in policy environment have directly facilitated capital inflows.
• Institutional adoption: Large holdings by MicroStrategy, Tesla, BlackRock, and others have transformed Bitcoin from retail assets into institutional-grade assets.
• Market sentiment and media effects: Rising public attention often coincides with price increases, forming self-reinforcing cycles.

Current market data shows Bitcoin at $68.11K in February 2026, representing a 46% retracement from its all-time high of $126.08K. This retracement is a natural part of the bull cycle, laying the groundwork for the next upward move.

Comparative Analysis of Historical Bull Cycles

2013: Bitcoin’s First Public Recognition

The 2013 bull cycle marked Bitcoin’s first entry into mainstream awareness. From about $145 in May to $1,200 in December, a 730% increase. Key drivers during this period included:

• Cyprus banking crisis prompting search for alternative assets
• Enthusiastic early adopters and tech enthusiasts
• Media coverage beginning to focus on this emerging asset

However, the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 interrupted this upward trend, with prices dropping below $300, revealing the fragility of market infrastructure at the time.

2017: Retail Frenzy

2017 is known as the “ICO year” and “retail investor year.” Bitcoin surged from $1,000 at the start of the year to $20,000, a 1,900% increase. Features of this cycle included:

• Thousands of new tokens funded via ICOs
• Massive retail influx, with daily trading volume rising from $200M to $15B
• Widespread media coverage fueling FOMO (fear of missing out)

The subsequent crash in 2018 was a harsh lesson—prices fell 84% from $20,000 to $3,200—showing that unregulated hype ultimately reverts to rationality.

2020-2021: Institutional-Grade Bull Cycle

This period marked Bitcoin’s transition from retail to institutional assets. From $8,000 in early 2020 to $64,000 in April 2021 (a 700% increase), then approaching nearly $70,000. Unique aspects of this cycle:

• Federal Reserve’s low interest rates and fiscal stimulus drove capital seeking alternatives
• Public companies like MicroStrategy added Bitcoin to strategic reserves
• Institutional inflows exceeded $10 billion

However, the mid-2021 retracement to $30,000 demonstrated that volatility persists even with institutional involvement.

2024-2025: A New Era with ETFs

The breakthrough in 2024 changed the previous pattern. The SEC approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January, opening the door for traditional investors. This led to:

• Bitcoin rising from $40,000 at the start of the year to $93,000 by year-end
• ETF inflows surpassing $28 billion, exceeding gold ETF flows
• BlackRock’s IBIT ETF holding over 467,000 BTC

By February 2026, despite a price correction to $68.11K, market infrastructure has fundamentally changed, with daily trading volume at $776.80M and wallet addresses reaching 55.66 million, indicating solidified adoption.

Recognizing Signals for the Start of a Bull Cycle

Successful investors need to understand how to identify early stages of a bull cycle. Several key indicators are worth monitoring:

Technical Indicators:

• RSI breaking above 70 often signals strong buying momentum
• Golden cross of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages often precedes trend shifts
• Increasing trading volume is essential for genuine upward movement

On-Chain Data:

• Continuous decline in Bitcoin balances on exchanges suggests accumulation rather than selling
• Increased inflow of stablecoins into exchanges indicates new capital entering
• Rising wallet activity reflects growing participation

Macro and Policy Factors:

• Changes in interest rate environments influence risk asset appetite
• Friendly regulatory shifts (e.g., ETF approvals)
• Large-scale purchase announcements by institutions

Current market sentiment shows a balanced 50% bullish and 50% bearish outlook, often a prelude to a new upward breakout.

The Future Role of Bitcoin Halving and Supply Scarcity

Bitcoin’s supply cap is 21 million coins, with the issuance rate controlled by halving events. Future bull cycles will continue to be deeply influenced by this mechanism.

The next halving is expected around 2028. Historical data indicates that halving typically triggers significant price increases within 6-12 months afterward. Between February 2026 and 2028, market performance will be affected by multiple factors:

• Institutional involvement: Continued increases by mainstream financial institutions could push prices higher even before halving.
• Macroeconomic factors: Inflation, interest rates, and dollar trends.
• Policy environment: Whether major economies adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis has proposed a bill in 2024 to purchase 1 million BTC over five years, reflecting potential policy shifts, though not yet enacted.

From the ETF-Driven 2024-2025 to the Next Phase

The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has transformed the market structure. This is not just capital inflow but a fundamental upgrade of market infrastructure.

Current market features:

• 24-hour trading volume around $776.80M, down from late 2024 highs
• Market sentiment polarized (50% bullish/50% bearish), reflecting digestion of previous gains
• The gap between the all-time high of $126.08K and current price of $68.11K indicates profit-taking and natural risk adjustment

Potential future developments:

1. Technological innovations: Activation of OP_CAT could enable more complex smart contracts, boosting DeFi competitiveness.
2. Institutional product expansion: Introduction of futures, options, structured products.
3. National adoption: Countries like Bhutan with 13,000 BTC, El Salvador with about 5,875 BTC, and others may follow.
4. Energy sustainability: Transitioning mining to renewable energy under ESG pressures could further improve Bitcoin’s image.

Preparing for the Next Bull Cycle

Regardless of when the next bull cycle begins, investors should adopt proactive and disciplined preparation:

Theoretical readiness:

• Deep understanding of Bitcoin’s technical fundamentals, supply mechanisms, and historical cycles
• Study of the four major cycles (2013, 2017, 2020-2021, 2024-2025), identifying unique factors and common patterns

Strategic planning:

• Clarify personal risk tolerance and investment horizon
• Determine appropriate Bitcoin allocation within a diversified portfolio
• Set clear entry, stop-loss, and take-profit targets

Technical preparation:

• Choose secure trading platforms or investment tools (spot ETFs offer convenient access)
• Learn to self-custody via hardware wallets
• Enable multi-factor authentication and other security measures

Psychological readiness:

• Recognize volatility as inherent, not abnormal
• Avoid impulsive trading driven by fear or greed
• Stick to pre-defined plans, resisting short-term price swings

Tax and compliance:

• Understand local tax rules for crypto assets
• Maintain detailed transaction records for tax reporting
• Consult professionals when necessary

Outlook: Timeline and Features of the Next Bull Cycle

While predicting the exact start of a bull cycle is nearly impossible, we can make probabilistic inferences based on historical patterns:

Key time markers:

• 2028 halving: Historically, significant price rises occur 6-12 months post-halving, suggesting 2028-2029 as a key window.
• Policy shifts: U.S. regulatory stance, inclusion in foreign exchange reserves.
• Institutional allocation cycles: Quarterly adjustments by pension funds, sovereign funds, and large asset managers could push prices higher.

Potential features of the next bull cycle:

Compared to the ETF-driven cycle of 2024-2025, the next cycle may exhibit:

1. Broader participation: Beyond tech enthusiasts and hedge funds, including pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds.
2. Price breakthroughs: Reaching $200,000 or higher, marking Bitcoin’s entry into mainstream financial assets.
3. Market depth enhancement: Greater liquidity and reduced volatility.
4. Expanded use cases: Beyond store of value, in payments, smart contracts, and real-world applications.

Conclusion: The Cyclical Nature and Uncertainty of Bull Markets

Bitcoin’s bull cycles reflect its evolution from fringe experiment to mainstream financial instrument. From the $1,200 peak in 2013 to $93,000 in late 2024, and around $68,000 in 2026, each cycle reinforces and refines this market.

Investor insights:

• Patterns exist: Four-year halving cycles, policy events, and institutional adoption create recognizable models.
• Uncertainty remains: No one can precisely predict when the next cycle will start or peak.
• Preparation beats timing: Through comprehensive knowledge, rational strategies, and strict risk management, investors can make better decisions under various market conditions.

The current market is in a correction phase, but this very correction creates opportunities for patient and prepared participants. Whether you are a long-term holder or a strategic investor, understanding past and present Bitcoin bull cycles is fundamental to making better future decisions.

The next bull cycle may already be brewing—key is to stay vigilant, keep learning, and be ready to act when opportunities arise.