Wintermute Ventures: Fundamentals Return, Cognitive Reset After Attending Hong Kong Consensus

Market sentiment is becoming more cautious, and almost no one is willing to pretend they know where the next obvious wave will come from.

Author: Wintermute Ventures

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Introduction: After attending Hong Kong Consensus, the Wintermute Ventures team wrote this observational report, providing a market sentiment scan from a market maker’s perspective.

Cooling market conditions are now widely accepted, but the value of this article lies in explaining why—narrative failures, token identity crises, capital rotation into AI stocks—these signals combined point not to a short-term bear market, but to a recalibration of industry paradigms.

The Wintermute Ventures team returned from Hong Kong Consensus, and the most consistent signal from the conference was: market sentiment is becoming cautious, and almost no one is willing to pretend they know where the next obvious wave will come from. The good news is that conversations are becoming more concrete, and it’s easier to distinguish between real signals and cyclical narratives.

What We Heard

Downward sentiment, clear catalysts are hard to find

Most people do not see obvious near-term catalysts capable of reversing the mood, and many investors find it difficult to identify where the next major native crypto wave will emerge—aside from a few obvious sectors. Founders are feeling this shift. Several mentioned they wish they had raised funds earlier, as the current thresholds are higher, and investors want to see more traction before committing.

Signs of capital rotation into AI stocks are clear, especially in Asia

Many “liquid funds” are actually family offices and proprietary capital, not strictly regulated fund-licensed capital. These types of capital have shifted momentum into AI, with public AI stocks serving as the default new trading targets. But this appears more like momentum trading rather than a fundamental change in crypto investment logic.

Tokens outside mainstream assets are facing an identity crisis

Beyond major assets, almost no one is excited about altcoins. The deeper issue is that tokens have lost their clear identity as credible value accumulators and incentive alignment mechanisms. Token issuance is increasingly seen as disruptive, as mercenary-like voices and rapid outflows make it difficult for issuers to convey lasting value or alignment signals. A common discussion among founders is to stop copying old scripts and instead design for real users and long-term alignment.

Opportunities are focused on fundamentals and defensiveness

The market is clearly favoring businesses with revenue, licenses, and distribution moats. There is still a belief that crypto startups can deliver ten times better returns than traditional tech, which has become slower and more consensus-driven. Meanwhile, standing out in crowded sectors is becoming harder: yield packaging products are considered saturated and difficult to differentiate; prediction markets still attract new entrants but lack innovation; options markets remain interesting, but many believe infrastructure and edge dynamics are not yet ready.

Latin America repeatedly mentioned as an attractive region

Latin America has shown clear product-market fit and is moving toward stricter regulation. The winners will be teams capable of crossing borders with regulatory compliance and replacing traditional banking tracks. This sector is already crowded, and differentiation is no longer just about stablecoins but involves a combination of regulatory capability, connectivity, and execution.

Despite weakening sentiment, people have not given up on crypto. Expectations have simply increased. Investors now demand tangible evidence (which naturally leads to self-healing). Founders face pressure to focus on distribution and acquiring real users. Tokens face stricter scrutiny on value capture and incentive alignment. From Wintermute Ventures’ perspective, we remain optimistic. These resets are tough but healthy—this is how the most resilient companies led by teams with genuine long-term conviction are forged.