Bitcoin Bull Run History: From Bullish Cycles to Future Crypto Prospects

Each Bitcoin bull run leaves its own mark, but all follow a natural cycle: supply scarcity triggers demand, which is sequentially driven by halving events, institutional adoption, and regulatory factors. To understand when the next crypto bull run might begin, we need to carefully examine how these cycles form and what factors propel Bitcoin’s price explosion. From the early rally in 2013 to future prospects, Bitcoin’s history offers valuable lessons for investors seeking opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.

What Is a Bitcoin Bull Run? Characteristics of Crypto Price Surge Phases

A Bitcoin bull run is a period during which prices rise sharply and sustainably, typically lasting from several months to over a year. Unlike traditional markets, crypto bull runs are characterized by rapid increases—sometimes hundreds of percent—along with soaring trading volumes and widespread participation from retail and institutional investors. Typical signs of a Bitcoin bull run include: daily trading volume rising from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars, sudden spikes in wallet activity, increased stablecoin inflows into exchanges, and social media buzz about Bitcoin.

The structure of a bull run usually comprises three phases: accumulation (smart investors buy low), explosion (enthusiasm drives prices higher), and distribution (early holders sell for high profits).

Bitcoin Halving: The Key to Historical Price Cycle

One of the most critical factors triggering crypto bull runs is the halving event—a programmed mechanism in Bitcoin that reduces mining rewards by approximately 50% every four years. This creates an automatic supply scarcity, which is a key driver of Bitcoin’s bull runs.

Historical halving patterns are clear: after each halving, Bitcoin experiences significant gains within 12 to 18 months. The first halving in 2012 was followed by a 5,200% increase; the second in 2016 led to a 315% rise; and the third in 2020 caused a 230% surge. This pattern shows that although each subsequent bull run tends to diminish in percentage terms, supply scarcity remains a powerful force boosting demand and investor sentiment.

2013: The Birth of Crypto Bull Runs – Bitcoin’s Early Days

Bitcoin’s first rally in 2013 marked the beginning of crypto bull runs in history. Bitcoin climbed from around $145 in May to over $1,200 in December—a nine-month increase of 730%. This meteoric rise was revolutionary: it moved Bitcoin beyond tech-savvy circles and drew widespread public attention.

Factors fueling the 2013 bull run included media interest, the Cyprus banking crisis (prompting some investors to seek decentralized safe assets), and initial infrastructure development. However, this rally was also followed by a symbolic risk event: the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014, which handled about 70% of all Bitcoin transactions. This security breach led to a prolonged bear market, with Bitcoin falling below $300 (a 75% drop).

2017: Year of FOMO and Global Crypto Bull Run

If 2013 was the start, 2017 was the true explosion of Bitcoin’s bull run. Driven mainly by increased retail investment and the ICO boom, Bitcoin rose from about $1,000 at the start of the year to nearly $20,000 by December—an increase of 1,900%.

What set the 2017 bull run apart was widespread retail participation and mainstream media attention. Daily trading volume soared from under $200 million to over $15 billion. However, this rapid ascent led to a sharp correction: from nearly $20,000, Bitcoin dropped to $3,200 in December 2018—a decline of 84%. This downturn was triggered by regulatory fears (China banning ICOs and exchanges), prompting panic selling and significant losses.

2020–2021: The Institutional Era and “Digital Gold”

The 2020–2021 rally transformed Bitcoin from a private asset into a legitimate investment vehicle for institutions. Starting at $8,000 in January 2020, Bitcoin reached $64,000 in April 2021—an increase of 700%. The core narrative shifted: Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a hedge against inflation amid economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19.

Publicly listed companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square accumulated hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin collectively. Bitcoin futures trading was approved late 2020, opening new institutional channels. Over $10 billion flowed from institutional investors. However, concerns over regulatory crackdowns and environmental issues (mining energy consumption) led to a 53% correction from $64,000 down to $30,000 in July 2021.

2024–2025: Crypto Bull Run Triggered by ETFs and Halving Expectations

The 2024–2025 rally peaked in November 2024 when Bitcoin hit $93,000, up 132% from $40,000 at the start of the year. Two main factors drove this crypto bull run: SEC approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and the fourth halving in April.

ETF approvals marked a historic milestone. By November 2024, Bitcoin ETF funds had raised over $4.5 billion (actually $28 billion at the time of writing). Major institutional holders like BlackRock owned over 467,000 BTC via their IBIT ETF, with total ETF holdings surpassing 1 million BTC. This massive capital inflow not only pushed prices higher but also laid a foundation for broader adoption.

The fourth halving in April 2024 continued the historical pattern: reducing mining rewards, thus increasing scarcity. Coupled with growing institutional acceptance, this bull run appears more stable and less driven by FOMO, with stronger fundamentals.

Recognizing Crypto Bull Runs: Technical and On-Chain Indicators

To identify an upcoming bull run, investors should monitor three key signals: technical indicators, on-chain data, and macro factors.

Technical indicators include RSI (Relative Strength Index), 50-day and 200-day moving averages. When RSI exceeds 70, it often signals strong buying momentum. When prices break above key moving averages—especially the 200-day—it can mark the start of a sustained upward trend.

On-chain data offers deeper insights. Increasing wallet activity, declining Bitcoin reserves on exchanges (indicating accumulation), and stablecoin inflows into exchanges (enabling buying) are positive signs of an impending crypto bull run. In 2024, total inflows into Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $28 billion—an unprecedented figure—showing institutional demand has never been stronger.

Macro factors include monetary policy, regulation, and geopolitical news. ETF approvals in 2024, the re-election of crypto-friendly politicians like Donald Trump, and countries like El Salvador and Bhutan adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset all contribute to a favorable environment for a bull run.

Warning Signs and Risks of a Bitcoin Bull Run

While crypto bull runs offer huge profit opportunities, they also carry significant risks. High volatility can lead to abrupt corrections. FOMO may cause retail investors to buy at peaks, risking heavy losses when bubbles burst.

Regulatory concerns remain a major risk. Increased scrutiny from agencies like the SEC or policy shifts by governments can trigger sudden declines. Environmental issues—particularly Bitcoin’s energy consumption—may also pressure regulators and ESG-conscious communities.

Market saturation is a long-term risk. As Bitcoin grows larger, annual percentage gains may diminish, reducing its appeal compared to newer altcoins. Competition from other cryptocurrencies with advanced features or clear use cases could divert capital.

Future Outlook: Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset and Layer-2 Tech

Looking ahead, two main factors could trigger future crypto bull runs: governments adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, and technological advancements in Layer-2 solutions.

The proposed BITCOIN 2024 Act by Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests the U.S. Treasury could buy up to 1 million BTC over five years. If enacted, this policy could significantly boost global demand. El Salvador adopted Bitcoin as legal tender in 2021, and Bhutan holds over 13,000 BTC through its sovereign fund, Druk Holding & Investments. Transitioning Bitcoin from a speculative asset to a national policy tool could open a new chapter for crypto bull runs.

Technology also plays a crucial role. Reintroducing OP_CAT (a long-removed Bitcoin opcode) could enable more powerful Layer-2 solutions, allowing Bitcoin to process thousands of transactions per second. Success here could unlock DeFi possibilities on Bitcoin, positioning it as a competitor to Ethereum in decentralized finance applications.

Preparing for the Next Crypto Bull Run

To capitalize on the next crypto bull run, investors should take thorough preparatory steps:

Self-Education: Understand Bitcoin fundamentals, blockchain technology, and market drivers. Study past bull runs to identify patterns and triggers.

Develop an Investment Strategy: Clearly define your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment horizon. Diversify your portfolio beyond Bitcoin to mitigate risks.

Choose Reliable Exchanges: Use platforms with strong security measures, user-friendly interfaces, and good regulation. Enable two-factor authentication (2FA) and consider hardware wallets for long-term storage.

Stay Informed: Follow reputable news sources and regulatory developments. Changes from the SEC or decisions by key nations can trigger major market shifts.

Trade Responsibly: Avoid emotional decisions, use stop-loss orders, and stick to your strategy. Remember, every crypto bull run is followed by a bear market; mental preparedness for both is essential.

Conclusion: When Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Begin?

While no one can precisely predict the timing of the next crypto bull run, history shows Bitcoin’s resilience and adaptability. Factors like the upcoming halving (expected in 2028), regulatory developments, government acceptance, and Layer-2 innovations could all trigger future rallies.

Investors should remain cautious, stay updated on market news, and be ready to adjust strategies as conditions evolve. Understanding past bull runs not only offers valuable lessons but also helps in early recognition of new upward trends.

Bitcoin has demonstrated the ability to withstand crises, corrections, and regulatory pressures. When the next crypto bull run occurs—and it will—those well-prepared will be best positioned to seize the opportunity. Learn from the past, prepare for the present, and stay ready for the future.