Hong Kong Tech Stocks Diverge: "AI Newcomers" in Favor, "Monetization Concerns" Drag Down Internet Giants

Hong Kong stocks resumed trading after the Lunar New Year holiday, with technology stocks showing a divergence trend. Generative AI startups surged, while traditional internet giants pulled back, as capital preferences shifted from “comprehensive platforms” to more pure AI targets.

Impressive performances at the Chinese humanoid robot Spring Festival Gala ignited enthusiasm among Hong Kong stock investors. The robotics sector saw UBTECH rise as much as 13% on Friday in Hong Kong, and Yuejiang soar nearly 23%, marking the largest intraday gains since April.

As of press time, AI large model companies Zhipu and MiniMax rose 31% and 13% respectively in Hong Kong, continuing their strong momentum since their January listings. Both stocks have now more than quadrupled in value.

In contrast, Alibaba and Tencent, despite strong business data during the holiday period, saw their stock prices dip temporarily by 1.83% and 0.29%. While taking profits, the market is increasingly evaluating the AI investment intensity and the pace of return realization of major tech giants.

Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd., pointed out that investors are scrutinizing how quickly AI projects can substantively contribute to profits. Coupled with regulatory focus on platform promotional competition, short-term valuations are under pressure.

Capital Rotation Accelerates, Pure AI Stocks Lead Gains

Before and after the holiday, Chinese AI companies accelerated the release of updated models and new features. The holiday itself also served as a peak period for users to test new applications and digital services, further amplifying market attention on AI themes. The impressive performance at the Chinese humanoid robot Spring Festival Gala ignited enthusiasm among Hong Kong stock investors.

Meanwhile, competitive factors are also driving the pace. Bloomberg mentioned that many companies aim to complete product iterations before DeepSeek’s next major release. This expectation has strengthened investors’ risk appetite for foundational model tracks and is channeling funds into more “pure” AI companies.

Investment Banks Optimistic on MiniMax, Price Targets and Revenue Forecasts Enhance Growth Potential

Wall Street institutions are supporting the rally with their coverage of MiniMax. Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, and UBS have all initiated coverage, rating the stock as a “buy.”

UBS has set a target price of HKD 1,000. Morgan Stanley expects MiniMax’s revenue to reach approximately $700 million by 2027, implying up to tenfold growth over the next two years.

Internet Giants Pull Back, Investment and Returns Repriced

Alibaba and Tencent reported solid operational data during the holiday, but market focus has shifted to “investment versus return.” Alibaba’s Qianwen AI handled 130 million orders during the Lunar New Year activities, and Tencent’s Yuanbao app has over 50 million daily active users.

However, investors are assessing whether this buzz can translate into tangible profits and at what cost to acquire users. Bloomberg estimates that Alibaba and Meituan may have offered about $870 million in consumer incentives during the holiday to boost engagement, while Tencent plans to invest around $145 million.

According to Alibaba’s official release, its Qianwen app launched the “Spring Festival Guest Invitation Plan,” committing approximately 30 billion RMB to incentivize consumers with dining, entertainment, cash red envelopes, and free services during the holiday.

Dilin Wu noted that traditional giants like Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent are under pressure, partly due to their core advertising, e-commerce, and gaming businesses growing at rates below market expectations. When AI can “meaningfully” contribute to profits will become a new valuation constraint.

Regulatory Focus on Promotions and “Involution” Competition, Platform Strategy Space Tightens

Regulatory signals are further increasing pressure on platforms. According to CCTV News, the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) held talks with major online platform companies on February 13, urging them to curb promotional practices and eliminate “involution”-style competition. Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, JD.com, and others were among those involved.

Against the backdrop of increased subsidies and AI investments by platform companies, this event has heightened market sensitivity to promotional intensity, cost ratios, and profit sustainability, further widening the valuation gap between “AI newcomers” and internet giants.

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