American Express Stock Outlook: Why Analysts Flag Valuation Risk In 2026

Analysts from TIKR.com are flagging valuation risk for American Express (AXP) stock in 2026, projecting a moderate 8% annualized return by December 2028 from its current price of $359, despite strong revenue growth and capital returns. The valuation model, based on 8.8% revenue growth, 27% operating margins, and a 17.7x exit multiple, indicates a “Sell” recommendation, as the expected return does not sufficiently compensate for equity risk compared to a typical 10% equity hurdle. The article details the assumptions used in the model and discusses potential outcomes under different scenarios for premium card spending and credit performance.