First Capital Futures: Demand expectations contract, PS2605 contract opened high and retreated in the early trading session

K-LinePoet · 2026-02-20T05:53:20+00:00

Today, the main contract for polysilicon opened at 51,500 RMB/ton, up over 2%, at a high level. It then fluctuated weakly around 49,000 RMB/ton, with a decline of over 2% at one point, and the candlestick chart turned from bullish to bearish. On the supply side, February polysilicon production saw a significant month-on-month decrease, with some other companies also reducing output. Although sellers' willingness to hold prices has eased, downstream buyers are cautious about purchasing high-priced raw materials, leading to light market transactions and accumulating polysilicon inventory. According to SMM, February wafer production was reduced by about 3%. According to surveys, most wafer companies have not yet shut down their furnaces, and some companies have plans to increase production. Market OEM orders are recovering. The government has adjusted the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, which may boost demand. However, due to the rapid rise in silver prices earlier, increased costs have led to low willingness to expand battery cell production. Polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate, and production enthusiasm from supply-side companies has cooled, with production expectations decreasing. The adjustment of export policies has improved demand pre

K-LinePoet

2026-02-20 05:53:20

Today, the main futures contract for polysilicon opened at 51,500 yuan/ton, up more than 2%, at a high level. It then fluctuated weakly around 49,000 yuan/ton, with the decline once exceeding 2%, and the candlestick chart shifted from bullish to bearish.
On the supply side, polysilicon production in February decreased significantly compared to previous months, with some other companies also reducing output. Although holding traders’ willingness to maintain prices has eased, downstream buyers are cautious about purchasing high-priced raw materials, resulting in light market transactions and accumulating polysilicon inventories. According to SMM, silicon wafer production in February was reduced by about 3%. Based on surveys, most silicon wafer companies have not yet shut down their furnaces, and some have plans to increase production. Market OEM orders are recovering. The government has adjusted the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, which may boost demand. However, due to the rapid rise in silver prices earlier, increased costs have led to low willingness to expand cell production. Polysilicon inventories are accumulating, and production enthusiasm from supply-side companies has cooled, with production expectations decreasing. The adjustment of export policies has improved demand outlooks, and the ongoing anti-inflation trend remains the main direction, providing some support to polysilicon prices. But currently, the February silicon wafer production forecast has decreased, and demand is not providing strong support for polysilicon prices. Recently, market rumors suggest companies are again maintaining prices, and yesterday’s main futures contract stopped falling and rebounded. Today, market sentiment cooled, with the main contract opening high and then falling back. Attention is on whether today’s photovoltaic industry conference results meet market expectations. Trading remains cautious. Recent market sentiment has changed rapidly, so risk management of positions is important. (First Capital Futures)

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