BERLIN, Feb 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Viktor Orbán has punched above his weight for 16 years. Hungary only accounts for 1.2% of the European Union’s GDP, but its prime minister has been a constant source of exasperation for fellow EU leaders and a major thorn in their decision-making process. He often seems to prefer, opens new tab the company of Russian President Vladimir Putin or U.S. President Donald Trump. Now Orbán is facing the most serious political challenge of his long career. If Hungarian voters reject his brand of “illiberal democracy, opens new tab,” to use his own term, they would pave the way for swifter decisions from the EU when dealing with Russian military threats or Trump’s diplomatic challenges. That makes upcoming elections an acid test for the anti-EU coalition.

Orbán is a rare survivor in European politics. When he was first elected as prime minister in 1998, Gerhard Schröder was chancellor of Germany, Jacques Chirac presided over France and Tony Blair had been Britain’s leader for just over a year. Since returning to office in 2010 he has met with, and exasperated, three French presidents and as many German chancellors, as well as eight Italian prime ministers. In that period he has won four elections.

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Hungarians have strong reasons to hesitate before granting Orbán another mandate, though. The economy has been in a slump, opens new tab for three years. In the last three months inflation has fallen to an annual 2.1% rate that appears to reflect reduced activity, after hovering for months in the 4% to 5% range. In the last 16 years the national currency, the forint, has fallen by 20% against the euro. Hungary has gradually been catching up with the rest of the EU, like other former Soviet satellite states that joined the bloc in 2004. However GDP per capita, which was slightly above Poland’s in 2010, is now 5% smaller, according, opens new tab to World Bank numbers. According to most opinion polls, Orbán trails, opens new tab his challenger Péter Magyar ahead of national elections due to be held on April 12.

Economic hardship strengthens the electoral case for ending Hungary’s long estrangement from the EU. The country’s economy is heavily dependent on European markets. The EU absorbs more than 70% of its exports — the highest proportion among member countries — with Germany accounting for nearly 25% of those. The German economy’s stagnation over the last three years has therefore hit Hungary hard.

EU sanctions have also taken a toll. The European Commission has withheld financial support, opens new tab due to a number of rule-of-law violations, including a series of reforms that tightened the Hungarian government’s grip on the judiciary, and what Brussels deems an insufficient fight against corruption. This has cost the country between 18 billion and 19 billion euros of EU funds frozen so far: the equivalent of about 8% of the country’s GDP this year according to International Monetary Fund forecasts.

No wonder Magyar has made recovering the withheld EU funds a key part of his election campaign, opens new tab, along with moving away from a style of government the European Parliament has called “a hybrid regime of electoral autocracy". Orbán’s challenger even wants Hungary to adopt the euro by 2030. Like other countries that became part of the EU since the creation of the single currency, Hungary is bound by treaty to join. But nothing can force it, and Orbán has made full use of that loophole.

Many European leaders would doubtless welcome a change of government in Budapest. Having Hungary as a good-willed member of the EU would smooth the bloc’s decision making and consolidate its unity against Vladimir Putin. Magyar has said that the EU and NATO are Hungary’s “fundamental alliances that set [its] security and daily life.”

That said, Orbán’s challenger could, if elected, still thwart the EU consensus. Magyar has promised to be more flexible about Ukraine joining the EU, but opposes an accelerated process and wants to put any decision on the issue to a domestic referendum. Like Orbán, he has insisted on the rights of the ethnic Hungarians living in western Ukraine. Unlike the current prime minister, though, he has never described, opens new tab Ukraine as “an enemy”.

Defeat for Orbán would be a setback for the group of eurosceptic EU leaders who have coalesced around him in recent years. However, the EU has found ways to manage the Hungarian prime minister, as well as Slovakia’s Robert Fico and the Czech leader Andrej Babis. It has adopted 19 packages of sanctions against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Each required a unanimous decision and is renewed every six months on the same basis. EU member states have been adept at working around the rules, with Orbán’s tacit agreement.

Hungary’s constant thorn has even been useful in one respect: It has forced Europe to consider more boldly the possibility of doing away with the unanimity rule that has often been an obstacle to serious reform. It is now considering expanding the concept of “coalitions of the willing” — where a smaller group of countries move ahead without waiting for broader unanimity — from issues related to defence to reforms that could boost competitiveness or strengthen Europe’s single market.

Yet these contortions nonetheless consume time and energy and interfere with the swift and bold decision-making that may be necessary in future. Orbán’s friendly relations with Trump and Putin could become a serious impediment to responding to U.S. tariffs, or to aggression from Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Hungary and Slovakia this week will do little to ease those concerns.

European officials have been extra careful not to take sides in Hungary’s electoral campaign, even as Moscow has alleged EU interference in the electoral process. But there is no doubt about where their preference lies. Hungary, which pioneered populist and anti-EU politics, will soon provide a litmus test of its electoral appeal.

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Context News

• Parliamentary elections will be held in Hungary on April 12. Voters will be asked to fill 199 seats in the National Assembly, with 100 required for a majority.
• Péter Magyar, the president of centre-right opposition Tisza Party and a former member of the European Parliament, is leading in the polls with 48% of voting intentions while Fidesz, the party headed by current Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, is seen receiving 39% of the vote.
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Orbán on Monday during a visit in Budapest that he could count on U.S. support. “President Trump is deeply committed to your success, because your success is our success,” Rubio said.

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Editing by Peter Thal Larsen; Production by Streisand Neto

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Pierre Briancon

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Pierre Briancon is a Breakingviews columnist, writing on European business and economics. He was previously a writer or editor at Barron’s, Politico, and Breakingviews for a first stint as Paris correspondent and European editor. For the first part of his career he was a foreign correspondent and editor at Libération, the French newspaper. He was also an economics columnist for Le Monde and for French public radio.

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