"Spring Festival Transportation" scheduling changes won't bring true prosperity; the film market needs to return to everyday life and genuine popularity

February 19th, the third day of the Lunar New Year, marked the third day of the Spring Festival film season. Real-time data from Maoyan Professional shows that nationwide cinemas scheduled a total of 542,000 screenings that day. Although this was slightly fewer than the first and second days, it still remained at a relatively high level.

Previously, on the first day of the Lunar New Year, the total number of single-day screenings nationwide reached an astonishing 595,800, setting a historical record and exceeding last year’s same period by nearly 90,000 screenings, an increase of 17.65%. However, on that day, the total box office revenue across the country was 1.277 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of about 29%, and the number of moviegoers decreased by approximately 27% compared to the same period last year.

In other words, despite nearly a 20% increase in screening supply during the opening day of the Spring Festival season, both box office revenue and movie attendance declined by nearly 30% year-over-year.

Looking at the second and third days, the situation has not shown significant improvement. This clearly signals that the total number of screenings does not directly correlate with box office performance.

Why is that? Although ticket prices may have increased, the occupancy rate has decreased.

For example, on the first day of the Lunar New Year this year, with nearly 600,000 screenings scheduled, the highest occupancy rate was only 46.6% for “Flying Past 3.” On the second day, none of the films exceeded 30% occupancy.

Such situations are very concerning and warrant further investigation into the underlying reasons.

Excluding factors like film quality and audience reputation, looking solely at the rigid indicator of total screenings, the Spring Festival film season, to some extent, exhibits characteristics similar to the past railway “Chunyun” (Spring Festival travel rush) surge.

Objectively speaking, the number of cinemas nationwide remains relatively constant at fixed points in time. However, during the Spring Festival, screening schedules fluctuate greatly compared to normal days, much like the tides.

This huge volatility, akin to the high-density passenger flow during “Chunyun,” affects the viewing experience and, more importantly, could impact long-term investment in the film market.

It’s important to note that the number of screenings during the Spring Festival in previous years has not been a simple upward trend but rather a cycle of “overheating—returning.” For example, in 2022, the Spring Festival screenings hit a new high of 565,000, but the number of viewers did not increase proportionally. As a result, the number of screenings from 2023 to 2025 generally decreased.

However, stimulated by the hot box office during the 2025 Spring Festival, many investors turned their attention to this market, trying to capitalize on this traffic wave.

Therefore, the increase in total screenings likely reflects an increase in the number of cinemas and screens. In other words, the past popularity of the Spring Festival season has driven investment in the film market. But such investments are not necessarily rational or efficient.

Market analysis shows that in recent years, most new cinemas are located in fourth- and fifth-tier cities or even smaller counties, where screen supply capacity is far weaker than in first- and second-tier cities. This increase in investment can better meet local Spring Festival demand.

But this is similar to simply increasing railway capacity during the Spring Festival travel rush—it is not an optimal solution. Once the holiday ends and people start returning to cities, these newly added cinemas in lower-tier cities may face market saturation.

How does the railway system solve the problem of ticket shortages during “Chunyun”? Mainly through scientific and reasonable capacity regulation and technological improvements to the 12306 platform, rather than blindly increasing trains and staff to meet peak passenger flow at specific times. Otherwise, it would lead to huge resource wastage once passenger flow normalizes.

To cope with the Spring Festival travel rush, appropriately increasing cinema infrastructure and screening slots is necessary, but there must be a reasonable limit. If cinema investors lack long-term planning and market feasibility studies, and occupancy rates continue to decline, the revenue per screen may become unsustainable.

For the film market, we need a strong Spring Festival season, but relying solely on it is far from enough.

Comparing 2023 and 2025: the 2023 Spring Festival box office was 6.758 billion yuan, while 2025’s exceeded 9.4 billion yuan, making it the strongest Spring Festival season in history. However, the total annual box office in 2023 reached 54.9 billion yuan, while in 2025 it was only 51.8 billion yuan. Although “Nezha: The Devil’s Birth” became the highest-grossing film in Chinese film history in 2025, the absence of sufficiently strong mid-tier hits like those in 2023 meant that the overall annual box office performance was less impressive.

We need a thriving film industry, but we also hope the market can reduce dependence on a single key period. The most rational market approach should be to avoid overly crowded holidays that negatively impact audience experience, while maintaining a steady flow of viewers through flexible ticket pricing and market-driven fluctuations during regular days.

Only then can the film market become healthier and more rational.