Bitcoin shutdown price in volatile markets

Recently, Bitcoin prices have experienced a correction, and assets such as gold and silver have also shown significant fluctuations. The macroeconomic environment’s uncertainty has clearly increased, putting overall pressure on risk assets. Against this backdrop, market sentiment has become more cautious, and discussions around crypto assets are gradually shifting from growth expectations to survival capabilities. Among these, the operational status of miners has become a focal point, with the concept of “shutdown price” being frequently mentioned.

This concern is not unfounded. Under the dual influence of falling prices and tightening macro liquidity, the profitability of the mining industry is indeed facing temporary pressure. The market attempts to use the “shutdown price” indicator to determine whether miners will be forced to exit en masse, thereby affecting network security and asset outlooks. This focus reflects market participation, but relying solely on this concept as the core basis for assessing industry risk often overlooks key differences and self-regulating features within Bitcoin mining mechanisms. In fact, in practical operation, the “shutdown price” is not a simple, uniform price alert level.

Misconceptions About the Shutdown Price

From an industry perspective, there is no single “shutdown price” applicable to all miners. The so-called “shutdown price” is more of a theoretical result derived from models based on specific assumptions, typically assuming uniform electricity prices, equipment efficiency, and operating costs. In reality, the cost structures of mining operations are highly differentiated. Different miner models vary significantly in energy efficiency; new high-efficiency miners and older equipment do not have comparable unit cost of hash power. For example, among current mainstream models, the Antminer S23 Hyd (approximately 580 TH/s, 5510W) has an efficiency of about 9.5 J/T, the Antminer S21 (about 480 TH/s, 5280W) around 11 J/T, and the Canaan Avalon A16XP-300T approximately 12.8 J/T. Improving energy efficiency by 1–2 J/T under the same electricity price conditions can significantly alter the breakeven point.

Source: Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI), Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF), accessed February 12, 2026

Different mining farms also face significant variations in energy environment and contract electricity prices. From hydropower and wind power to thermal power, the energy mix directly determines marginal costs. Large-scale farms in North America with abundant hydropower resources can have long-term contract electricity prices as low as $0.03–0.05/kWh, while in regions with higher energy costs, commercial electricity prices may reach $0.08–0.12/kWh. The operational pressure on the same model of miner varies significantly under different electricity prices. Additionally, differences in operational efficiency, management costs, capital structure, and risk management strategies among miners also influence their ability to withstand price fluctuations.

Therefore, due to the large differences in miner models, electricity price structures, and operational efficiencies, there is no unified “shutdown price” in the industry. Actual conditions vary depending on farm conditions and equipment configurations. Treating a model based on average assumptions as a “life or death” line for the industry can easily amplify market sentiment.

When Bitcoin prices gradually approach certain cost ranges amid volatility, the real industry changes are often closer to a structural adjustment rather than a systemic risk outbreak. During periods of price pressure and relatively high mining difficulty, overall profit margins narrow. The first adjustments tend to occur at the marginal hash power with higher costs and lower efficiency. Smaller miners, those with higher energy costs or aging equipment, may choose to gradually shut down, reduce hash rate, or adjust their asset structures to ease operational pressures.

This process often manifests in macro data as a phased decline in total network hash rate. A decrease in hash rate does not mean network security is compromised but more reflects natural industry clearing and renewal. In fact, such cyclical changes tend to accelerate the concentration of hash power among entities with scale operations and cost advantages, thereby improving overall industry efficiency.

Market Selection and Self-Adaptation

From a deeper perspective, the “shutdown price” is not an absolute bottom in terms of price but more of a dynamic reference zone. During market fluctuations, high-cost, low-efficiency miners may choose to temporarily shut down equipment or adjust their operational strategies. The Bitcoin network itself has a mature self-adaptive mechanism. When some hash power exits, the network difficulty adjusts downward, allowing remaining efficient miners to gain larger rewards, gradually leading the network toward a new equilibrium. This self-regulation capability ensures that Bitcoin mining can continue through multiple cycles, providing efficient miners with increased unit hash output and improved operational environments.

Extending the timeline makes this pattern clearer. In past cycles, the industry has experienced phases where prices fell below certain production cost ranges. In 2019, 2022, and other periods, Bitcoin prices were below most miners’ production costs at the time. However, with adjustments in hash rate, difficulty, and market recovery, the industry gradually converged toward new equilibrium ranges. Each cyclical adjustment pushes the industry toward lower energy costs, higher hash efficiency, and greater specialization and scale, clearing outdated capacity and marking industry maturation.

How to Progress Amid Fluctuations

At the enterprise level, responding to industry volatility is less about short-term price judgments and more about long-term preparedness and operational resilience. Take BitFuFu as an example: the company has long focused on infrastructure construction and operational efficiency, continuously deploying new high-energy-efficiency miners, and improving overall hash power through scaled operations and meticulous energy cost management. The company also adopts diversified energy cooperation, building a competitive electricity cost structure. Thanks to advantages in equipment efficiency, energy mix, and operational systems, its hash rate remains stable, enabling it to maintain relatively steady output and healthy asset structures during industry adjustments.

Short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, but the Bitcoin network and mining industry demonstrate strong self-adaptive and evolutionary capabilities through cycles. Behind the discussion of “shutdown price,” what truly matters is how the industry achieves efficiency leaps amid volatility and how companies that focus on long-term construction and continuously build cost and efficiency moats can thrive.

Winter tests vitality; cycles forge true value. What the industry is experiencing is not retreat but a deeper consolidation and upgrade. We are always here—focused, steady—and moving forward together with the network.