Underwear exposed! $BTC is trapped between 55,000 and 79,000, on-chain data reveals that the main players are "sharpening their blades," while retail investors are dreaming of a "bull comeback"?

Market analysis indicates that $BTC is currently trapped between two key cost levels. Above is the real market average of approximately $79,200, and below is the realized price of around $55,000. This structure is similar to the bear market bottoming phase in the first half of 2022, suggesting that prices are likely to oscillate within this range for an extended period, making trend breakthroughs difficult.

Currently, $BTC shows some support in the $60,000 to $72,000 range, which is a dense trading zone for the first half of 2024. On-chain data shows that holdings have not significantly exited this area, indicating some holders are still holding firm. However, this does not necessarily mean strong accumulation.

The real pressure comes from above. The ranges of $82,000 to $97,000 and $100,000 to $117,000 have accumulated a large number of positions in unrealized loss. Any rebound toward these zones will face heavy forced liquidation selling pressure. Short-term holders are generally at a loss, with profit-taking ratios only at 4.9%, and the market lacks fresh capital to continue buying in.

From the capital flow perspective, the situation is also bleak. Institutional investors, including ETFs, corporations, and governments, are experiencing net outflows of their digital asset holdings. This is not just a rebalancing by individual institutions but a market-wide risk reduction. The spot market’s capacity to absorb buying is clearly insufficient.

Spot trading volume only briefly increases during price declines and then quickly diminishes. This indicates most trading is passive, responding to drops or panic selling, rather than active accumulation. The market lacks sustained, confident buying support.

The derivatives market is also cooling down. Funding rates for perpetual contracts have returned to neutral levels, showing that leveraged speculators’ enthusiasm has significantly waned. Meanwhile, implied volatility in options markets has surged across the board, especially short-term volatility jumping over 20 percentage points, signaling that the market is repricing risks amid uncertainty.

More notably, the skewness in options markets is worth attention. The 25 Delta skew for 1-month and 3-month options is deeply negative, meaning out-of-the-money put options are priced much higher than calls. Market participants are continuously buying downside protection, a defensive stance.

This options position structure directly impacts market makers’ hedging behavior. Market makers are currently in a short gamma position, which means that price volatility will be amplified by their hedging activities, increasing market fragility. The open interest heatmap shows a large accumulation of protective puts between $50,000 and $70,000, further suppressing the potential for price rebounds.

Overall, the market is in a balanced state under pressure. Liquidity is thin, participation is dispersed, and the position structure is predominantly defensive. To break this consolidation, either a strong buying surge must recover the key average of $79,200, or an extreme negative event must break below the realized price support of $55,000. Until either occurs, the most likely path is continued sideways movement within this wide range, waiting for new variables to emerge.

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