Trump issues a "final warning" to Iran! Middle East tensions suddenly escalate, with oil and gold prices rising in tandem

CryptoTimes Finance APP has learned that as U.S. President Trump sets a deadline for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear issue, geopolitical risks have sharply increased, driving both international oil prices and gold prices higher.

According to reports, Trump stated that Iran has at most 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, or face consequences. This remark marks a significant escalation in U.S. pressure on Iran. Meanwhile, the U.S. is conducting its largest military deployment in the Middle East since the Iraq War in 2003, which the market interprets as keeping options open for potential ongoing military action.

As a result, international oil prices remain near six-month highs. At press time, U.S. WTI crude futures are slightly below $67 per barrel, having gained about 7% over the past two trading days; Brent crude futures closed around $72 per barrel.

The main risk to oil prices is that if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for Middle Eastern oil exports, it could disrupt global oil supplies. As traders continue to assess the potential impact of regional conflicts on supply, oil prices have risen approximately 17% this year. The region accounts for about one-third of global oil production, a factor that has overshadowed the downward pressure on prices expected from oversupply by 2025.

Citi analysts Anthony Yuen and others stated in a report, “If conflict with Iran escalates to a disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are likely to rise further.” They added that their baseline forecast does not assume a long-term interruption of this critical route.

The rising risk premium is also reflected in the crude oil options market. For most of this year, due to traders hedging against price surges, call options have traded at prices well above put options. On Wednesday, a $100 per barrel June Brent call option covering 10 million barrels changed hands. After EIA data showed crude inventories decreased by 9 million barrels (the largest decline since early September), bullish momentum further strengthened. Inventories of refined products also declined across the board.

Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, also performed strongly, holding steady near $1,500 per ounce. Over the past two trading days, gold prices have risen more than 2%. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog warned that the U.S. military deployment indicates that the window for Iran to resolve its nuclear issue diplomatically is closing.

Market analysts pointed out that the tight negotiation window presented by the Trump administration, coupled with unprecedented military pressure, evokes scenes from June last year, when the U.S. launched military strikes against Iran. At that time, Trump also claimed to give “two weeks for diplomacy,” but action was taken within two days. Currently, while large-scale military action remains a focus of discussion, reports indicate that the White House is not ruling out limited early strikes to pressure Iran back to the negotiating table.

In addition to geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over U.S. interest rate paths also supports gold prices. Lower borrowing costs generally benefit interest-free assets like gold, making the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance another market focus. Reports suggest that, given recent data showing the U.S. economy performing better than expected, Fed Governor Stephen Muilin has softened his previous calls for significant rate cuts this year. The dollar index has risen 0.8% so far this week.

Since experiencing a historic sell-off earlier this month, the gold market has been unusually volatile. At that time, gold prices sharply retreated from a record high of over $1,595 per ounce within two days to nearly $1,400. The speculative buying wave accelerated in January, pushing this multi-year rally to a critical point. However, the fundamental factors supporting the previous gold price increase—including continued fund withdrawals from sovereign bonds and currencies—remain largely intact.

Amid the tensions surrounding Iran, gold’s safe-haven appeal has once again come into focus. After widespread turmoil, Iranian leaders are deeply concerned about regime stability. A major strike on Iran could potentially entangle the U.S. in its third Middle Eastern war since 1991, a scenario driven by its own proactive military initiatives.