Which Space Stock Offers Better Growth: Redwire or AST SpaceMobile?

Within the broader space sector recovery of 2025, a stark divergence has emerged between individual companies. While many space stocks have delivered triple-digit returns to investors, not all participants in this industry have shared in the gains. For those evaluating which space stock deserves capital allocation, the decision between struggling incumbents and emerging leaders becomes critical.

The Space Stock Landscape in 2025-2026: Diverging Paths

The year 2025 presented a compelling backdrop for space-focused investments, with the broader sector outperforming traditional benchmarks. The S&P 500 index climbed roughly 17% over the same period, yet numerous space-related companies generated returns exceeding 100%. However, this narrative masks significant performance fragmentation within the sector.

Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW), a space infrastructure and defense technology provider, exemplifies the underperformers. Shares declined more than 48% year-to-date—a stark reversal that stands in sharp contrast to space stocks that have flourished. The divergence raises a fundamental question for investors: should capital be directed toward recovering underperformers or toward space stocks already demonstrating clear momentum?

Redwire’s Persistent Challenges as a Space Stock Investment

Redwire’s extended weakness reflects operational and market-specific headwinds that may persist into 2026. The company has confronted consecutive earnings disappointments, share dilution, and delays in government contract fulfillment—a combination that has tested investor patience.

Recently, the company announced a partnership with European aerospace firm The Exploration Company, securing a contract to supply two docking systems for the Nyx spacecraft. Such contract wins provide temporary positive momentum, yet they appear insufficient to sustain broader confidence. Analysts remain cautious about the company’s ability to demonstrate accelerating growth or approach profitability in the near term.

For Redwire to restore investor confidence and generate the outsized returns typically associated with space stocks, management must demonstrate tangible progress in reaccelerating revenue growth and achieving consistent profitability. Until these milestones materialize, further recovery for this space stock remains uncertain.

AST SpaceMobile: Why This Space Stock Could Stay a Winner

In contrast, AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS), a provider of satellite-based cellular broadband services, has maintained strong momentum despite market volatility. Year-to-date, shares have surged approximately fourfold, rising from the low $20s in January to the low $80s by year-end—a testament to investor confidence in the company’s commercialization trajectory.

Notably, even after reporting quarterly results below expectations in late 2025, investor conviction remained intact. This resilience reflects conviction around the company’s core thesis: accelerating commercial adoption among major telecommunications partners. Verizon Communications and other carriers have entered commercial agreements with AST SpaceMobile, de-risking the company’s business model and providing revenue visibility.

Analyst projections underscore the growth potential for this space stock. Sales are expected to expand by approximately 343% in 2026, implying revenue acceleration that would validate the bull thesis. Beyond near-term growth, longer-term earnings models suggest profitability emergence within 2-3 years, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of $0.35 in 2027 and $2.57 in 2028. These metrics position AST as a company transitioning from speculative growth story to profitable operator.

Space Stock Investment Decision: Weighing Risk Against Potential

Both companies remain early-stage enterprises without current profitability, yet they operate from fundamentally different competitive positions. Redwire struggles with operational execution and contract timing, while AST SpaceMobile has already secured major commercial partnerships and demonstrated demand for satellite-delivered connectivity.

Investors must acknowledge the risks inherent to both space stocks. Early-stage companies lack operational maturity, valuations remain speculative, and unexpected setbacks could trigger significant volatility. Position sizing should reflect this elevated uncertainty.

The decision ultimately hinges on risk tolerance and investment horizon. For those willing to endure near-term fluctuations in pursuit of multi-year wealth creation, AST SpaceMobile presents a more compelling space stock opportunity than Redwire. The company’s tangible commercial progress, partnership depth, and earnings trajectory suggest greater probability of execution versus recovery scenarios for lagging competitors.

Should you consider AST SpaceMobile for your portfolio, conduct independent analysis and ensure the position aligns with your overall asset allocation strategy. Like any space stock, returns are never assured—only potential.