When to Buy Rigetti Computing Stock: A Subodh Kulkarni Investment Perspective

Subodh Kulkarni’s analysis of Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) reveals a critical timing question for investors: not whether to buy this quantum computing pioneer, but when. The stock presents a classic Wall Street dilemma—genuine technology potential paired with deteriorating near-term fundamentals—making it a compelling case study in separating hype from execution.

The Quantum Computing Puzzle: Sales Announcements vs. Revenue Reality

At first glance, Rigetti’s October 2025 announcement seemed promising. The company revealed two significant sales: nine-qubit Novera quantum computing systems bound for an Asian technology manufacturing company and a California-based AI startup. Combined value: $5.7 million. Yet here lies the catch—neither contract would generate revenue until 2026’s first quarter. By mid-2025, Rigetti had only booked $5.2 million in total annual revenue, putting the company on pace to fall well below its 2024 haul of $10.8 million.

This timing gap matters enormously. With no additional deals announced since October’s announcement, the company appears headed for a second consecutive year of stagnant sales—perhaps even worse than 2025’s disappointing trajectory. The $5.7 million in deferred revenue might provide 2026 relief, but it offers no guarantee of sustained momentum or a return to growth.

Revenue Decline Raises Profitability Questions

The numbers paint an increasingly bleak picture for those betting on near-term turnaround. Over the past three years, Rigetti’s sales have contracted 43% from 2022 peak levels, while annual operating losses have quintupled to exceed $350 million. Wall Street analysts polled by S&P Global Market Intelligence see no pathway to profitability until 2030 at the earliest—a sobering outlook for a company hoping to justify its current market valuation.

Subodh Kulkarni’s critical take: Rigetti operates a “real business with real revenue,” yet the revenue base remains microscopic relative to cash burn. The company’s inability to scale beyond niche quantum computing customers, combined with accelerating losses, suggests the firm is consuming investor capital while struggling to demonstrate commercial traction. Growth has stalled precisely when momentum mattered most.

Institutional Optimism Meets Execution Challenges

What prevents this from being a straightforward “avoid” case? Major institutional players seem unconvinced by the bearish narrative. BlackRock, Vanguard Group, and American Assets Investment Management have collectively built positions representing nearly 20% of Rigetti’s outstanding shares. These institutions clearly believe in long-term quantum computing adoption and Rigetti’s positioning within that ecosystem.

Their thesis draws strength from Rigetti’s earlier performance: between 2020 and 2022, the company nearly quadrupled annual sales, demonstrating quantum systems could find paying customers. That high-water mark proved unsustainable, but it confirmed the fundamental premise—demand exists for sophisticated quantum computing hardware delivered as on-premises systems.

When Rigetti Could Become Investment-Worthy

For Subodh Kulkarni and like-minded skeptics, a clear inflection point would change the calculus: new deal announcements in early 2026 that halt the sales decline, combined with bookings extending through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027. Evidence that the October sales represented a returning appetite for Novera systems—rather than an isolated contract—would restore credibility to Rigetti’s growth narrative.

Until such proof materializes, the stock remains fundamentally speculative. The quantum computing market opportunity is genuine, institutional capital is committed, and Rigetti possesses legitimate technological advantages. Yet none of these factors offset the company’s current trajectory of shrinking revenue and mounting losses. The question isn’t whether quantum computing will matter—it will. The question is whether Rigetti can execute before its cash depletes and dilution becomes inevitable.

Investors seeking exposure to quantum computing have alternatives worth exploring. But for Rigetti specifically, the thesis requires a catalyst: sustained new customer acquisition that demonstrates commercial momentum has returned and positions the company for profitability before the decade’s end.