#当前行情抄底还是观望？ The Bitcoin of 2025 has taken many on a rollercoaster ride—rising to a historic high of $126,000 in October before steadily declining. This is the first time since the halving that a downturn has occurred in the following year.

As 2026 progresses, the downward trend has not stopped; in early February, it dipped to $60,000 and is currently hovering around $67,000.

The so-called "four-year cycle" seems to be losing its grip, as Bitcoin has become deeply tied to the Federal Reserve's policy rhythm. Wall Street's outlook for 2026 is highly divided.

Among the optimists, JPMorgan, based on a risk parity model comparing Bitcoin and gold, has set an optimistic target of $170,000 within 6 to 12 months, and even sees a long-term potential of $266,000;
Bernstein maintains a forecast of $150,000 by the end of 2026, believing that institutionalization will break traditional bear market patterns.
However, bearish signals are also strengthening—Standard Chartered has twice revised down its forecast, from an initial $300,000 to $150,000, with the latest target now at only $100,000, and even warns it could drop to $50,000 first;
Fidelity Global Macro Director Jurrien Timmer explicitly stated that October 2025 was the cycle's peak, and 2026 will be a "rest year."
Currently, the minimum production cost of Bitcoin is about $77,000, and global crypto ETP net inflows have reached $87 billion. Both bulls and bears are well-armed—what do you think Bitcoin will ultimately reach in 2026? Feel free to leave a comment!

By the end of 2026, what range will Bitcoin's price fall into?

1. Below $50,000 – Deep bear market, breaking below cost basis
2. $50,000–$80,000 – Cycle peak, bottoming out with oscillations
3. $80,000–$120,000 – Mild recovery, returning to six figures
4. $120,000–$150,000 – New all-time high, institutions continue buying
5. Above $150,000 – Full realization of the digital gold narrative, go for it!