ETH: Frequent Bull Traps, Did You Fall for the Weekend "Fakeout"?

Late at night on the weekend, I was the only one left in the tea room.

Just poured the second cinnamon infusion into the fair cup when the door was pushed open.

It was Mr. Lu, who runs a physical business, sweating profusely.

He recently got obsessed with trading cryptocurrencies and joined more than a dozen so-called "Wealth Code Groups."

He sat down and immediately took out his phone, holding the screen up to my face.

"Brother Bao, all the big shots in the group are saying that before last year's Spring Festival, they were pushing the market. Tonight, Ethereum is going to violently surge past 2500. I’m planning to put in 200,000 to open a 50x long position. Can you give me some insight?"

I didn’t look at his screen and poured him a cup of tea.

I told him, if you keep chasing the slogans in the group, the main players are watching your principal.

Many people get killed by "hypotheses."

Hypothesis: If I buy in, it could multiply tenfold; if I miss this wave, there will be no other chance.

I turned the computer screen around so he could see Ethereum’s chart.

First, look at the 1-hour chart.

A few days ago, there was a sudden attack, with $ETH shooting up to 2107 in one candle.

Look at that momentum, right?

This kind of movement is called a "sucker punch" in trading slang.

The main players tested the selling pressure upward and dug a trap.

As soon as retail traders chase in, it immediately weakens.

Weekend liquidity dries up, and every candle on this chart is a hook for a fakeout.

Next, open the 4-hour trend.

The downward inertia hasn’t been stopped.

The center of gravity is still slowly shifting downward. This is called "boiling a frog in hot water."

A quick cut would just cause a little pain, but this kind of slow decline is the most deadly—it wears down your willpower.

Mr. Lu got anxious and asked, "Can I reverse and open a short now?"

I said, "No."

The essence of trading is patience, not reckless action.

【Old Bao’s Real Trading Strategy】

Direction: Wait and see for a high short (weekend late night, weapons put away).

Entry point: 2030 - 2050. Be patient and wait for the main players to draw another gate. When the market shows some hope, we short above.

Stop-loss: 2088. If the main players push through with volume, it means the story has changed. We admit defeat and exit, never hold through.

Partial profit-taking: First watch 1988, then 1950. Sacrificing a litt