Asset Migration Amid the Macro Hedging Wave: Gold Strengthens, Bitcoin Declines, What's Next for Tangyuan

The recent market volatility may seem sudden, but there have been early warning signs. The early strength of gold has sent a clear signal to the market, while high-risk assets like Bitcoin and Tether (USDT) have gradually followed this rhythm. When we broaden our perspective from the price movements of individual cryptocurrencies to the overall asset allocation logic, we can see the true drivers behind this wave of market activity.

The Asset Reality in the Eyes of Macro Big Funds

It must be acknowledged honestly: in the asset allocation of institutional investors and quantitative funds, Bitcoin is not purely viewed as a safe-haven asset but as a high-volatility risk asset. The same logic applies to innovative public chain tokens like Tether— their volatility characteristics determine their position within the risk asset camp.

When gold begins to strengthen persistently—especially in a context where there is no obvious deterioration in inflation or extreme black swan events—this sends only one signal: macro funds are actively reducing their risk exposure. The underlying capital logic is straightforward:

“I need to exit high-volatility assets but don’t want to hold low-yield fiat cash.”

Due to its low volatility and high recognition, gold has become the ultimate destination for this round of capital transfer. Meanwhile, high-beta assets like Bitcoin and Tether are among the first to be sold off during the reallocation process.

Why Do Bitcoin and Tether Lead the Collapse?

The order in which assets are sold is not random but determined by market liquidity characteristics. In a risk-avoidance cycle, institutional investors’ operational logic is as follows:

Liquidity First:

• Bitcoin, as the most liquid crypto asset, trades 24/7 and has a large market cap
• Tether, while less liquid than Bitcoin, is still among the top-tier in its category of innovative blockchain tokens
• This makes them ideal for quick liquidation

Deleveraging Priority: When quantitative funds and ETF capital need to rapidly reduce overall risk exposure, they prioritize selling the most liquid assets. That’s why you see Bitcoin first plummeting, followed by Tether and other assets—these become the “first stop” for withdrawals during deleveraging.

On the surface, this looks like a one-sided decline in Bitcoin, with Tether and other innovative assets accelerating their correction. But fundamentally, it’s a macro-driven repositioning triggered by a change in risk appetite. The fundamentals of these tokens haven’t worsened; only the market’s attitude toward risk assets has shifted.

The Triangle of Gold, Bitcoin, and Tether

To understand this wave of market movements, we need to move beyond the binary “Bitcoin vs. Gold” framework and recognize the common macro pressure sources behind all three: the US dollar trend, real interest rate changes, and global risk appetite.

Within this macro framework, the performance of these assets varies:

• Gold: With a long history and relatively moderate volatility, it can withstand upward pressure from rising real interest rates
• Bitcoin: As a high-volatility asset, it tends to release macro stress more violently (via sharp declines)
• Tether: Positioned between the two, it is neither as stable as gold nor as extreme as Bitcoin, but its direction aligns with the macro trend

This explains why, historically, whenever major macro shifts occur, we observe a pattern: Gold leads the move, Bitcoin then experiences a significant drop, and innovative assets like Tether face moderate corrections. They are not opponents but are affected differently within the same macro storm.

Key Points to Watch Moving Forward

If we are to characterize this decline, it appears more like a passive risk-off process triggered by deteriorating risk appetite rather than a fundamental collapse. The market has not dismissed the long-term value of Bitcoin or Tether; rather, in this current phase, it favors traditional safe-haven assets like gold.

The real determinant of the next market direction is not “how much Bitcoin has fallen” or “whether Tether can rebound,” but a more fundamental question:

Can gold continue to strengthen unilaterally? Or will it start to consolidate or even decline?

When gold’s strength begins to turn, it will be the true signal for high-volatility assets like Bitcoin and Tether to stabilize and reprice. In other words, monitoring gold’s trend is the only effective anchor for interpreting the subsequent crypto market movements. The rise and fall of this macro risk-avoidance wave ultimately depend on the attitude shift of traditional safe-haven assets.