Let's speak with greater scientific precision about #Bitcoin

Since reaching a peak near $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin has entered a clear downtrend. This week it touched $60,000, then rebounded to around $67,000. We are talking about a decline exceeding 50% from the peak to the trough, a range that aligns with the practical definition of a bear market in highly volatile assets.

More important than the size of the decline is its context: gains in 2025 have been almost entirely wiped out, and the return is approaching 2024 levels, indicating a broad “re-pricing” rather than just a temporary technical correction.

Key observation: synchronization with software stocks

Since October, the decline has coincided notably with a sharp sell-off in software stocks, while tangible assets like gold, silver, and metals have shown resilient or upward performance. This pattern suggests a shift in the (Market Regime) from favoring high-growth, rate-sensitive, and liquidity-sensitive assets to favoring assets more linked to hedging narratives, inflation risks, or scarcity.

Over the past years, the market has priced in “digitization” as the major story: software, intellectual property, artificial intelligence, and cloud services. Now, there is a clear rebalancing in favor of the physical economy, supply chains, and commodities, reflected in performance disparities among asset classes.

Analytical conclusion: Bitcoin has become closer to a “growth/liquidity” asset than a “hedge/digital gold” asset

The prevailing interpretation is that Bitcoin is increasingly acting as a “Proxy” for tech/software stocks, rather than as an independent hedging asset. This is evident in three elements:
1. High sensitivity to liquidity conditions: when financial conditions tighten or safe asset yields rise, high-risk assets come under pressure, and Bitcoin often falls into this category.
2. Increasing correlation with technology narratives: when market confidence in AI stories or high valuation multiples in the software sector decline, risk aversion contagion spreads to digital assets.
3. Price behavior driven more by “sentiment” than short-term fundamentals: flows, leverage, positioning, and debt-funded positions influence the price faster than any “fundamental” variable that can be measured daily.

Meanwhile, hardware stocks have shown relative resilience so far, but this is not a guarantee. If pressure shifts to other tech components, we could see an expansion of the sell-off wave, but this remains a scenario requiring confirmation from data, not just assumptions.

Media signal: Sentiment indicator, not a valuation guide

When major media outlets start issuing repeated “obituaries” for Bitcoin, it often reflects a peak in negative sentiment. Historically, waves of excessive coverage sometimes coincide with turning points because the media tends to intensify narratives after the price movement has already occurred. However, this signal should be treated as a (Sentiment Indicator), not as a valuation argument.