Copper: Are we expecting a doubling of prices amid a mismatch between supply and demand?

The global copper market is on the verge of a major transformation. Experts predict that the worldwide shortage of this critical raw material will significantly impact price trends in the coming years. Analysts indicate that if current consumption rates persist, copper prices could potentially double, especially if they manage to break through long-term price channels.

Global Shortage: Why Copper Deficit Will Unavoidably Grow

The situation in the global copper market is indeed critical. According to NS3.AI, specialists expect a deficit of about 10 million tons over the next 14 years (by 2040). This shortage will not appear suddenly — it will develop gradually as copper supply fails to keep pace with the accelerated growth in global demand.

Structural supply constraints will only intensify this imbalance. Mining capacities are not expanding at a rate sufficient to meet new needs. Geopolitical tensions and investment delays in the mining sector also contribute to the worsening situation.

Electric Vehicles and AI Centers as Demand Drivers

The copper shortage is not forming chaotically — it is a direct consequence of revolutionary changes in energy and information technologies. Electric vehicles require significantly more copper than traditional transportation means. Each battery, each electric system of an EV demands additional quantities of this material.

At the same time, global data processing centers designed to support AI systems are expanding. These facilities require enormous amounts of copper for their infrastructure — from cables to heat exchangers. The demand from these two sectors creates a mismatch that will directly influence the potential for price doubling.

Asia Leads: 60% of Demand Growth Concentrated on the Continent

The spread of electric vehicles and the development of AI infrastructure are uneven across the world. Asia is at the forefront of this transformation. Analysts forecast that Asian markets will account for 60% of the global increase in copper demand.

China, India, and South Korea are actively expanding EV production and investing in computing centers. This regional trend will have significant consequences for global prices and supply structures. Concentration of demand in one region creates additional risks for price stability.

Doubling Potential: When Copper Will Have the Strength to Break Through

The scenario of copper prices doubling no longer seems like a fantasy of analysts. If prices manage to break out of the long-term price channel they have occupied over recent years, the potential for substantial growth becomes quite real.

This scenario depends on several factors: the pace of vehicle electrification, the speed of new AI center launches, and the capacity of the mining industry to expand production. Each of these parameters will influence whether prices double or if the market development takes more time.

Investors monitoring the copper market are watching these trends closely. If the logic of shortages receives further confirmation from production and consumption data, the doubling scenario could become the defining trend of the next decade.