#非农数据大超预期 Influenced by the much better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data for January, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have quickly cooled down.

According to Polymarket's betting data, the probability of the Fed not raising interest rates in March has jumped from 80% to 92%.
According to the latest data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of non-farm jobs added in January was 130,000, far exceeding market expectations, which to some extent alleviated concerns about a slowdown in the labor market and weakened expectations for rate cuts. Based on CME's FedWatch tool, traders currently believe the central bank will cut rates twice in June and September respectively.
On February 11th, Eastern Time, Trump praised the latest January non-farm payroll data and used it to reaffirm his view that U.S. interest rates should be significantly lowered.
Hassett also stated in an interview: “I believe the Federal Reserve still has ample room to cut rates.”
Hassett pointed out that due to policies such as early retirement implemented by the Trump administration, along with measures previously taken by the U.S. Department of Efficiency (DOGE), federal government employment has decreased by 360,000. This is the lowest proportion of government employees in the labor force since 1966. This means government wage expenditures will decrease by $29 billion this year, which helps lower interest rates and balance the budget.
He also said that the latest non-farm employment report shows that concerns about AI potentially negatively impacting employment are unfounded.
Hassett expects the U.S. economy to perform strongly in the future, with the booming development of AI driving productivity and economic growth. This year, U.S. GDP growth could easily reach 4%–5%, while emphasizing that inflation data will be a key factor in Fed decision-making.
Wall Street hedge fund mogul and Greenlight Capital founder and president David Einhorn predicts that the Fed will cut rates far more than expected this year (more than 2 times).
Einhorn stated that the market’s view that the latest employment data is a reason not to cut rates is “incorrect.” In fact, he believes the rate cuts could be even larger because he expects Fed Chair nominee Kevin Woor to persuade the committee to significantly lower rates.