The US monetary policy is entering an unusual phase under the influence of the data-driven approach of the Fed.

American monetary policy is experiencing an extraordinary period as the Federal Reserve adheres to a strictly data-driven management strategy. As Richard Flinn, Managing Director of Charles Schwab UK, noted, this policy course will continue at least until May 2026 unless there are significant changes in inflation dynamics or the labor market situation.

Power Imbalance: Monetary Independence vs. Fiscal Influence

The current situation with U.S. monetary policy is characterized by a deep conflict of interests. On one hand, the Fed traditionally maintains its independence in decision-making; on the other hand, it increasingly feels the influence of fiscal authority from government structures. This imbalance creates unique challenges for the central bank’s functions. Tensions between these two spheres of power are constantly growing and directly impact the credibility and authority of the Fed in the eyes of the public and financial markets.

Why this phase of policy is considered extraordinary

According to ChainCatcher analysis, the current period marks a turning point for the American monetary system. The Fed now operates in a mode where every decision depends on precise economic data: inflation indices, employment figures, consumption dynamics. Such a data-driven policy makes the decision-making process more transparent but simultaneously limits the institution’s flexibility. The institutional credibility of the Fed becomes a matter of utmost importance, as any deviations from the declared policy course could undermine trust in the U.S. monetary system.

Outlook until May 2026: what could change

The forecast for the period until May 2026 is based on the assumption of stable macroeconomic conditions. However, experts consider the possibility of changes. If inflation rises sharply or significant fluctuations occur in the labor market, the Fed may reconsider its policy. Until then, U.S. monetary policy will continue to follow the logic of data, with each press conference and official statement closely tied to the latest economic indicators.

This makes the period until spring 2026 critical for building trust in the American monetary system and demonstrating that the Fed can balance its institutional independence with the needs of the country’s fiscal policy.