Altseason 2025 Cycle Review: Eight Key Signals to Identify Market Peaks

The cryptocurrency market in 2025 experienced a classic altseason cycle. From Bitcoin reaching new highs to capital flowing into altcoins, and then facing sharp market corrections, all of this follows deep market规律. Understanding the definition and operation mechanism of altseason is crucial for investors to grasp market rhythm.

Altseason typically occurs after Bitcoin peaks and stabilizes, with大量资本 flowing from Bitcoin into various altcoins, driving sharp price increases for these projects. Professional analysts generally expect a “爆发性的 altcoin season” in 2025, but subsequent market adjustments could be as high as 75%. To avoid the trap of " chasing highs and getting caught," investors need to learn to identify multiple early warning signals of market peaks.

Retail FOMO Psychology: Market Sentiment Temperature from Google Trends

Retail investors’ FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is an important barometer of altseason. When many individual investors rush into the market seeing prices rise, trying to “not miss the opportunity,” FOMO is formed. The most direct indicators include Google Trends search popularity and social media activity.

For example, in 2017, when Bitcoin surged to a $20,000 peak, the keyword “Bitcoin” on Google Trends soared to a perfect score of 100/100, coinciding with the rapid price increase. CoinCodex’s analysis at the time pointed out this was a “pure FOMO phenomenon”—media hype, Reddit discussions, casual conversations, social media memes, all pointing to the same topic: cryptocurrencies.

This phenomenon has a psychological basis: when prices rise rapidly, trading volume suddenly expands, and social media buzz peaks, ordinary retail investors feel a strong psychological pressure of “missing out” if they don’t enter. However, this is also the most dangerous moment of altseason—when many latecomers start to buy in.

Conversely, if Google Trends remains low, with no significant increase in search volume, and social media discussions about cryptocurrencies are not heating up, it indicates that FOMO has not fully ignited, and the market may still be in an upward cycle. This also explains why at some points, even if prices hit new highs, the全民FOMO hasn’t arrived—altseason may still have room to continue.

Traders should note: The appearance of FOMO usually signals retail investors’集中入场, which is often the time for主力 and机构投资者 to gradually start unloading. The smart money that truly profits usually begins布局 before FOMO ignites, quietly withdraws during the hottest FOMO period.

Long-term Holders’ Selling Signals: When LTH Activity Indicates the End of Altseason

Long-term holders (LTH) refer to wallet addresses holding over 155 days. In market cycles, this group is seen as “smart money”: they typically accumulate during bear markets and distribute during bull markets.

According to on-chain analysis from Glassnode: “Long-term holders usually accumulate assets during bear markets, but when prices approach historical highs, they restart large-scale spending and selling.” When LTHs start to sell, a large amount of old tokens transfer from long-term holders’ wallets to short-term traders, causing a surge in short-term holdings (STH), directly increasing selling pressure.

Research from Bitcoin Magazine shows that when the growth rate of LTH supply sharply declines, it is a clear signal: LTHs are selling, and market peaks often follow. In other words, if you observe that the amount of tokens held by old wallets stops growing or even begins to decline, and “Coin Days Destroyed” shows a large amount of old tokens being spent, it indicates long-term holders are locking in profits.

Historically, before the peaks of 2017 and 2021, on-chain data clearly showed this LTH selling phenomenon. If the 2025 altseason follows the same pattern, an acceleration in LTH activity will be a key warning.

SOPR Indicator: On-Chain Evidence of Profit Lock-in

SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures the profitability of tokens when they are transferred (sold) on-chain. Its calculation is straightforward:

SOPR = (USD value at sale) ÷ (USD value at UTXO creation)

Glassnode interprets: SOPR > 1 indicates most tokens are sold at a profit (selling price above purchase price); SOPR < 1 indicates loss-selling. When SOPR remains above 1 for a long time, it shows many investors are locking in profits.

More critically, consecutive SOPR peaks often indicate a持续的分派趋势, which frequently occurs during bull market uptrends but also increases the likelihood of market top. Glassnode states: “连续的高SOPR峰值表明持续的分派潮流，这通常发生在价格上涨期间。”

Historically, before peaks in 2017 and 2021, SOPR often broke above 1 and reached multiple peaks, then started to decline—marking the beginning of aggressive sell-offs. Therefore, investors should be alert if SOPR remains high and repeatedly hits peaks, as this is a direct signal of逐步锁定利润.

NUPL Index: The Market Sentiment Thermometer

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) is expressed by a key formula:

NUPL = (Market Cap - Realized Market Cap) / Market Cap

NUPL > 0 indicates the overall market is in profit; NUPL < 0 indicates overall loss. More importantly, NUPL reflects how many investors are in a paper profit or loss state.

According to CryptoQuant analysis, high NUPL values (especially >0.75) typically mark extreme excitement, most common at market peaks. Specifically, in 2017 and 2021 peaks, NUPL reached about 0.9—almost every holder was paper Profiting.

The implication is straightforward: when NUPL enters the 0.75-0.8 range, most market participants are holding substantial profits. What is their心理状态? Greed or caution? Data shows most choose greed, waiting for “bigger gains”—but the subsequent result is often a sharp correction.

In the 2025 altseason cycle, if NUPL remains high, it is a warning sign—market peak may be near.

Bitcoin Profit Index: Viewing Market Heat from Absolute Gains

The Bitcoin Profit Index (also called average profit rate index) measures the premium of the current price over the market’s average cost:

Profit Index = (Bitcoin current price / average market cost) × 100

If the index > 100%, it indicates Bitcoin is trading above the market average cost (market overall profit); below 100% means the opposite. Currently, this index is around 202%, meaning Bitcoin is priced at more than twice the market average cost.

But there is a key historical规律: when the profit index exceeds about 300% (as in 2017 and 2021 peaks), investors usually enter a "疯狂利润锁定"模式. In other words, when gains become too fat, greed turns into risk aversion, leading to large-scale sell-offs.

Chart data shows that at historical peaks (2017, 2021), the profit index approached or broke through 300%. During the 2025 altseason, if this index continues to rise toward the 300% zone, it signals investors should consider “taking profits.” Currently, it’s around 202%, indicating the market hasn’t reached “extreme levels,” but monitoring its growth trend is necessary.

Decline of Bitcoin Dominance: Capital Shifting to альткоїны

Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) refers to Bitcoin’s market cap as a percentage of the entire crypto market. When this ratio declines, it indicates capital is flowing from Bitcoin into other altcoins.

Historical规律非常明显：每个重大altseason都伴随着BTC.D的急剧下降。具体案例包括：

• 2017-2018年：BTC.D从86.3%跌至38.7%
• 2020-2021年：BTC.D从70%跌至38%

When BTC.D drops to around 38-40%, it usually marks the peak of altseason. This data implies that the majority of incremental capital has already flowed into altcoins, and Bitcoin’s “吸金能力” is weakening, while the wealth effect of altcoins has been overdrawn. Once the inflow speed into altcoins slows, a correction is inevitable.

Therefore, if in the 2025-2026 market cycle, Bitcoin dominance continues to decline to these historic lows, it is a strong signal: altseason is reaching its limit, and investors should seriously consider reducing altcoin holdings.

Media Hype and Public Awareness: The Social Amplification of FOMO

When cryptocurrencies become “hot topics” on TV, news, YouTube, and social media, it often indicates that the public has entered the market. Rather than a market signal, it reflects大众心理.

CoinCodex’s study of the 2017 peak described it as: “Bitcoin is not just news; it is the news itself.” Media reports on Bitcoin daily, Google Trends on “Bitcoin” stay high, discussions expand from finance to casual chats. This is a rare phenomenon, usually only at market cycle peaks.

Conversely, when information about cryptocurrencies is scarce, media silence, and no big news, it indicates FOMO has not fully ignited—at this stage, the market may still be accumulating or rising.

When media hype is overwhelming, it means the大众已经"入场参赛". But this is also when smart money begins to quietly exit. Investors seeing the flood of crypto news should remind themselves to lock in profits rather than chase higher.

The Four Stages of Altseason Cycle Investment Guide

Understanding these signals, how should actual investment strategies be formulated? Here are recommendations for the four different stages of altseason:

Stage 1: Early Altseason—Careful Layout, Not Blind FOMO

Before altseason truly ignites, investors should develop a clear plan, deeply research potential altcoin projects. This is the most error-prone period, as prices just start rising, FOMO is not yet obvious, and most people choose to wait.

The correct approach: enter in batches according to pre-set strategies, diversify capital reasonably, rather than chasing high after rapid rises. Also, set profit-taking target prices and stop-loss points in advance—these are not optional but essential risk management tools.

Stage 2: Mid-Altseason—Monitor Key Indicators Closely

When altseason officially begins, investors need to monitor the indicators mentioned earlier: Google Trends, SOPR, NUPL, profit index, etc. These indicators start moving from normal levels toward peak zones.

At this stage, the strategy should be to gradually reduce altcoin positions while maintaining some cash or stablecoins. This helps respond to sudden market declines and avoid “funds being frozen.”

Stage 3: Altseason Peak—Actively Lock in Profits

When multiple signals appear simultaneously—FOMO widespread, LTHs start to sell, SOPR/NUPL reach peaks, media hype covers, BTC.D drops sharply—investors should actively lock in profits. Follow discipline, avoid greedily holding the entire portfolio.

Set stop-loss on holdings, and execute immediately if there are signs of significant market downturn. Protecting existing gains is more important than chasing additional profits at this stage.

Stage 4: Mid-Bear Market—Wait and Accumulate Quality Projects

When the market corrects (possibly down about 75%), it again becomes an accumulation opportunity. Good altcoin projects still have recovery potential in the long term. But learn from history: the bottoms of 2018-2019 and 2022 are often the best entry points.

Use macroeconomic and on-chain indicators continuously to judge market bottoms, rather than trading on feelings.

Key Takeaways: Psychological Preparation for Altseason Investment

The 2025 altseason cycle reaffirms the cyclical规律 of the crypto market. To make correct decisions in 2025-2026, investors need to:

1. Deeply understand the mechanisms of each key indicator—not blindly follow others’ analysis

2. Establish a multi-dimensional observation system—relying on a single indicator can mislead; confirmation from multiple indicators is more reliable

3. Discipline in executing pre-set plans—FOMO is human nature, but profitable traders are those who can self-discipline and follow their plans

4. Maintain healthy mental state—don’t let media overly influence decisions; remember the market has clear周期规律, those who understand the规律 can profit at each stage

Altseason is fundamentally a capital flow game. Don’t be attracted by暴涨 greed, nor give up entirely due to调整. Truly wise investors are those who understand market cycles, identify key signals, and act at the right moments. The 2025 altseason has already passed; new opportunities are brewing in 2026. Get prepared, learn well, and smart investing will reward those who are ready.