The source of Bitcoin's recent plunge: The abnormal emergence of IBIT1/ was first observed on IBIT February 6th. The daily trading volume of IBIT was approximately $10.7 billion, nearly double the previous all-time high. The options premium was about $900 million, setting a new record. Both spot and options volumes surged simultaneously, a rare resonance that resembles a concentrated action around existing positions.2/ Price decline but absence of contract liquidations. Subsequently, BTC and SOL moved weaker together, but the scale of CeFi liquidations was relatively low. Prices fell, but deleveraging did not occur. This structure indicates that selling pressure did not come from retail investors or high-frequency leverage, but rather from passive adjustments on the holdings side.3/ Pressure points to large IBIT holders. Analysts believe that this round of volatility may originate from major IBIT positions, possibly involving one or more hedge funds with non-crypto backgrounds, using IBIT for highly concentrated allocations. The larger the position, the lower the tolerance for price fluctuations.4/ Position structure amplifies risk. Data shows that some funds hold extremely concentrated positions in IBIT, even single-asset allocations, mainly to isolate margin risks. Such structures have limited room for adjustment in a one-sided market and are easily pulled in the opposite direction by price movements.5/ External factors accelerate imbalance. During the same period, silver prices plummeted, and yen arbitrage trades accelerated their liquidation. Macro-level risk appetite shrank, adding pressure on leveraged positions of related funds, further reducing operational flexibility.6/ Hedging attempts fail to reverse the outcome. Some funds may try to hedge or delay risk release through high-leverage options trading. However, as losses grow, hedging costs rise accordingly, and price volatility becomes a new source of pressure.7/ Scale cannot be hidden due to timing. Since 13F disclosures are delayed, related holdings are not expected to surface until mid-May. But judging from trading volume and traces, such risks are hard to conceal long-term. The market has already reacted in advance. The entire logic starts from abnormal data, focusing on position structure and unsustainability. The conclusion is already reflected in the trend.

BTC-3,15%
SOL-5,68%
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